2 Steps Forward 1 Step Back

Discussion in 'Journals' started by DraXon, Nov 20, 2002.

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  1. onelot


    why no trades today?
    #51     Dec 18, 2002
  2. DraXon


    Today's results:

    09:38 Short ES @ 894.50
    11:52 Exit ES @ 890.50

    * Reason for entry: Gap wasn't filling + previous downtrend.
    * Reason for exit: Trailing stop.

    13:18 Short ES @ 890.50
    15:37 Exit ES @ 888.50

    * Reason for entry: Continuation of trend.
    * Reason for exit: Near closing.

    Total: 6 points
    #52     Dec 18, 2002
  3. DraXon


    I wasn't convinced about the direction. I was anticipating a continuation of the last uptrend but instead the price action was exhibiting a tight range to the downside . . . though not far enough for me to pull a short trigger.
    #53     Dec 18, 2002
  4. DraXon


    To be honest with you, I don't even use volume. The only thing that I look at is the price action. That's it.
    #54     Dec 18, 2002
  5. DraXon, I'm enjoying your journal, but I have to ask about your above trade:

    Around 2 PM that short had you at a loss for a good couple of points. Why did you stay in the trade? What are your stop-loss principles? As a scalper, shouldn't you be getting out once the trade goes against you?

    Thanks and I hope you continue to profit!
    #55     Dec 19, 2002
  6. DraXon


    Today's results:

    10:00 Long ES @ 896.50
    10:28 Exit ES @ 894.50

    * Reason for entry: Range breakout.
    * Reason for exit: Trailing stop.

    10:52 Short ES @ 892.50
    11:42 Exit ES @ 890.50

    * Reason for entry: Looking weak.
    * Reason for exit: Trailing stop.

    12:39 Short ES @ 886.50
    15:14 Exit ES @ 880.50

    * Reason for entry: Continuation of trend.
    * Reason for exit: Near closing.

    Total: 6 points.
    #56     Dec 19, 2002
  7. DraXon


    I wouldn't classify myself as a scalper. I tend to stay on a trade longer if it's moving along its prevailing trend.

    If prices are indicating a trend reversal, then I would wait for a stronger development before jumping in.

    I also use a trailing stop at certain incremental price points. But, during stronger trends, I will widen my stops.
    #57     Dec 19, 2002
  8. DraXon,

    Thanks for the reply. I can't say I really understand your methods because as your trade graphs show you take losses when you could have booked profit earlier or you could have cut losses earlier too...have you ever considered exiting half of your position once you've reached a certain profit level and then adjusting your stops to breakeven? It just seems that you have darned good entries, and adjusting your exits might book you more profit.

    This from someone who has never traded the e-minis, but again I'm just going by your graphs...

    Thanks for continuing your journal and, again, I wish you the best in your trading endeavors. :)
    #58     Dec 20, 2002
  9. So Draxon, your journal is one month old:

    You have made 31 trades, lost 4 times and earned 135 SP points net.

    Your win/loss ratio is 2.65
    Your win probability is around 0.87

    I am trading for 10 years now (first in major dealin rooms, now on my own) and have never seen such amazing results, certainly in such a difficult period and with absolutely no method.

    Usually, there are two types of traders: scalpers with bad win/loss ratio (myself), trend followers with a bad win probability.

    You seem to have the best of both worlds and could (it's only one month) be one of the best traders ever.

    However, given the difficult market conditions and the non trending environment we have had the last month, I don't believe these results are for real.
    #59     Dec 20, 2002

  10. I had thought along similar lines. He could be playing with us, but we won't know either way... but one thing that Draxon uses that could explain his results (if they are indeed real results) is that 4 point stop... that one fact can help to explain things, at least to an extent...

    Having said that, I do however share some of MarathonTrading's skepticism... Draxon's results are essentially a statistically successful fusion of the merits of scalping combined with those of trend trading... :confused:

    I conclude that Draxon is either one of the best and most consistent traders out there (and my hat goes off to such traders), or is going through a statistically anamolous temporary winning streak, or he is a liar... I remain skeptical, but I will continue to sit on the fence and judge his numbers as he presents them...

    To Draxon, I will say one thing... when trading, to be honest to yourself is obviously more important than potentially fictional self-aggrandizement on public forums... I wish you all the best in your trading...

    To MarathonTrading, I will say one thing... it is right to be skeptical on the basis of the numbers, but it is also right to be open-minded...
    #60     Dec 20, 2002
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