Oh and also on the virtual simulator using the same strategy and stop loss, I was making 500-700 in play money. I know there is no way that could be real and duplicated in a live real market. How do I know? Nothing is that easy, certainly not trading.
What is a realistic return for a day, week, and annual?<O></O> <O></O> I looked up the top hedge funds and they seem to underperform the market index! Which is telling me that the chances for retail are not very good. Not that hedge funds are top tier traders most are make money on sales/commissions, but still................. <O></O> <O></O>Do you think the stories and hear say about traders, retail on top of it, beating the market consistently are exactly that stories and fantasy
160 Billions actually, not 10 billions. And yet nobody noticed anything! (You guys are sleeping again, eh? )
Anyone can trade with a small account. The issue is if that "anyone" is a newbie trader...can he or she be profitable trading a small account via a method that the trader has not backtested nor simulated traded...to determine if the method is consistently profitable ? The answer for the above is NO. By the way, some of the questions you've asked have implied you have NOT tested your method and you have NOT simulated traded your trade method via a small account because if you did...you would be able to answer those questions yourself instead of asking anonymous people at a discussion forum. In addition, you've chosen two of the most difficult trading instruments for a newbie trader to try to master. I truly hope you've bactested and simulated traded your trade strategy on ALL futures data you've had access to and then determined that CL and ES were the most profitable for you in comparison to other futures trading instruments. Simply, let your trade method results (backtest and simulate trading) determine which trading instruments you should be trading along with determining if you're ready to risk your small trading account . If you're not willing to do that, please stay away from futures trading. Something else you should think about. Most traders that have backtested their method and the results were positive...they still weren't profitable when they moved into real-money trading because they forgot that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals. Last of all, if you have not done the above, posting your trades isn't going to help you at all.
A better question would be, what's a realistic risk-adjusted return for a retail trader with a $2K account? My answer would be, if you accomplish a Sharpe's ratio of 3 and above, you'd be doing exceptionally well.
Whoops, I think there was a communication error. For clarification we were discussing return on a trader's risk capital. The hedge fund example returns were the returns you would expect when annualized so a 19% return would be 19k on 100k. Which is incredible! For a trader with a 25k account what would be a realistic return? Day, weekly, and yearly? Do you think the stories of traders making 20-30 k a day on a 25-50 k are true or even possible? I have heard the stories many times as I am sure you have, what are your thoughts.
The markets do not have to move 25% a week to make 25% a week. Technically you can make 25% a week or more if you can predict and capture all the numerous up and down moves that occur during a week, one by one, even if the opening price and the closing price for the entire week is the same. Of course you will need a time machine and a flux capacitor to do that.
Only 2 persons will be able to achieve this feat on ET. One of them is NoDoji and her famed Breakout Pullback, the other is Jack Hershey, who returns 3X atr in profit day in day out.