okay, the ROC did a pretty good job catching a falling cow <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=628203>
now let's see if it can stop a freight train <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=628204>
Hey Thjnskis: Nice to see you here again. I show the Dow pivot to be 10,623 approximately. To me it looks as though it will be a stretch to maintain momentum here. Also I looked at last weeks Monday charts. It seems to me that we may be due for a low range consolidation day.
good call on the low range day, turned out to be a NR7 (low hist vol too) the Dow ROC turned down, but it didn't really close in our favor, so consider it a wash. still, with a downside bias there were some nice short opps today
Shorted SPY at $118.65, based on my own method, but monitoring your ROC method too (feel good to get a confirmation today). Would the difference be big if I use ROC (3), instead of ROC (2)? I somehow think ROC (3) is better. Thanks for bringing this ROC topic up.
hi, how do you get the pivot number with a ROC 3 days? Is it Pivot = today's close - Day3 close + yesterday's close ? can't find something relative to this topic on the net .. thx
well . . . just to clarify a bit, the ROC (2) is not my method, and it doesn't belong to the person i learned it from either, this thing has been passed down from one to another for alot of years if you want to see some test data, 10 yrs worth across all kinds of markets is in the back of the Street Smarts book what the ROC (2) really is, is a proxy to gauge the "buy day", "sell day", "sell short day" rhythm that George Douglas Taylor wrote about if you feel the ROC (3) is better, by all means use it, people use all kinds of different intervals for momentum. but i would do alot of testing and know first, rather than "somehow think" would the difference be big ? to me it would be huge, in just glancing at the Dow for a comparison, a certain pattern i look for just disappears . . . and the thanks should go to "skyfisherman", he started the thread . . . good trading
you know, we can keep this thing on track and nobody says "boo" but as soon as someone comes along with a "tweak" or a variation on the theme, people ask questions, ha ha ha says alot about the trading game . . . some folks are so worried if they tell someone what they're doing, it will just vanish into thin air, the edge will be gone but the truth is, you could give a "true edge" to 100 people and 99 of them would ride it to ruin, because before really understanding it and making it "their own", they would change it, "tweak" it, mix it in a different way human nature i guess . . . and that is where the real battle lies
Appreciate your thoughts, thinskis. I don't know much about this method, just observing it. I think ROC (3) is better simply because the chart here: Need to copy and paste the links. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pd20,2!d13,2.618!f][vc60][iut!Ld13!Lm3]&pref=G it shows the latest ROC (3) high is a higher high, which means the market will go higher, which it did. However, under ROC (2), the two recent highs are pretty much the same, not so clear: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pd20,2!d13,2.618!f][vc60][iut!Ld13!Lm3]&pref=G In today's action, while ROC (2) made a lower low after yesterday's trading, ROC (3) hasn't made a lower low yet. If I'm using ROC (2)'s lower low to confirm the trade, I would expect today's action not to exceed the high we had two days ago, so I can trade some "short skirt" short. This is not the case, ROC (3) will probably keep me from shorting it yet. Of course, I'm NOT an expert in this ROC thingy, nor do I claim to be one. So I respect your thoughts on ROC (2), and when you say there are lots of missing info, I would try to figure them out... maybe by backtesting. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.