We are currently in a situation the world had never seen in this dimension, not many are knowing whats really going on. Once the lockdowns are lifted with some good news, the growd will think the worst is over, then I am expecting some more news (and not really good ones) or excuses for whatever and that will bring us back down (not necessary that violently we experimented nor next week as I said previously). That will get everybody euphoric and the media will jump in by saying how strong the markets are, blabla.... You are probably right with some stocks, but I was refering to the S&P. Can we drift higher from here? Sure! Will we come back? Hell of a yes!
This is the biggest dead cat bounce since 1930. Virus is here to stay for a year and a half. So is the lockdown. US privacy laws prevent effective contact tracing, and compliance with stay at home orders is much lower than east asia. China just barely eliminated it with totalitarian measures locking down hundreds of millions of people. The west will never get to that level of control of it. They'll only succeed in prolonging it. Unemployment is going to average at least 25% for the next 12 months. Unpredictable government interventions will deter investment, just like during the great depression. If it lasts till 2022 they elect a bunch of commies and make it worse.
Agree with everything you said, except that right now government intervention in the form of the Fed buying every debt security in sight is making investors pile into the bond and coroporate market. If the Fed decides to prop up the equity or commodity market in the same manner, people will buy stocks like no tomorrow knowing they have the Fed's unlimited bid to lean on.