2.25 % 10 year

The pattern on 10 year yield is coming to an inflection point.

if we rally above 2.05 we will see 2.25-

trade carefully because if we fail the yield can sink to 1.75

feel free to PM me

 

1) Make up your mind!
2) You're a "two-handed economist". :eek:

 

Fairly confident this will head to 2.25 range bases on todays action. 90% confidence-

 

2.25% today

 

I didnt take that trade at 130ish on the 10 year , ZN , ( I did see it)
mostly because I have seen the bond market doing
what the fed wants and bidding bonds as we have climbed to ES , 140.

I have little experince watching the 10 year on a daily basis
and wondered if the fed could contain the yeild.
Guess I got my answer the last 2 days. The market( all factors indicating present and expected inflation) swamps the feds "pledge" and "twist".
Seems obvious now, by the move in bonds over the last two days, that any further liquidity operations are off the table.

Out on a limb here , I believe it has been entirely a wordwide liquidity
driven rally, competitive worldwide currency deval, government and fed
engineered rally and of course we do have inflation above target, but....
The bond bubble will not burst. We wont climb a real wall of worry
as in the mid 90's and mid 2000's where corperate eranings, assets, stocks and yeilds ( a real healthy economy) rise with a behind the curve fed.
But this is "chicken soup" that is pretty mainstream isnt it.

 

Who cares, look at the price action!!