Actually, it was far from a brutal tight range. It was the smallest range since this drop started, yes, but still well above the long term average. There have been long periods in the not so distant past where the ES have had a 20 day average range of <= 10,00 points in RTH. I'm saying this to prepare you and help you plan for reduced volatility. Volatility may pick up again or it may not. It may very well decrease moving forward.
?Buy the Bid, Sell the Ask? - - -If you throw that front end into sim mode for a couple dozen minutes and use entry orders to Buy the Bid, Sell the Ask you could get a back of the envelope idea how that may work for your system. The downside, some of your trades are going to leave without you. The upside, you get fills where you want them. It might be worth a few minutes thought to see if there's something there for you. Do you use a dom?
Thanks. I actually use limit orders for entries and exits most of the time. I would say about 40% of the time I use market orders for exits when I really want out NOW. And I use market orders for entries about 20% of the time.
maybe take a couple dozen minutes to (sim?)trade the mnq. mnq moves by a tiny group of tech movers as opposed to the 500 mix of all manner of companies. it may be a welcome change of focus. just a thought. you're doing great, by the way. is your order entry front end convenient and flexible and keeping up with you? do you use a dom?
This whole concept of "edge" is really a ploy I feel like. Over time reading countless threads and ideas about "edge". Its just a term for consistently making money. Its 100% a hindsight bias problem. Nobody knows edge until it materializes, once its gone, that edge is gone. It can come back, how? Make money consistently again. But I just feel like we get into conversations too much about edge, we lean on that word way too much.
I disagree ^^ You need to “guessimate” the expected value. What you don’t know is if your estimate is right. You need to “guessimate” it for each bet. Then you can plot it against the actual results. In the end the overall profitability wins, But you need to sharpen your mental models. An EDGE is situation specific. It’s contract specific. It’s a structured bet. Profitability is the sum of all your bets. That’s the ultimate metric. The PnL. If your judgement is good, You can tell when it’s a +EV bet, And also when it actually turns against you. I try to evaluate my Expected Value every time. Now ... Is my jugement accurate ? How confident should I be ? From there I bet half Kelly. Half to allow for inconsistent jugement call. You need to structure your bet, This structure implies a fair payout. But it’s actually biased and shifted favorably. That’s your edge. A bet is either Fair, Favorable or Unfavorable. Given its likelihood and its respective payoff. Having an Edge is having an unfair advantage. If you can’t tell you have an edge, You ain’t got no advantage. So why gamble ? This is how I structure my bets for Futures: The contract is Entry, TP, SL. From here you got the fair (implied) payout. But I introduce a bias which make it unfair. Then Kelly tells me how much to bet. Exemple: A 50/50 bet is 1 to 1 payout. But if I can get either a better likelihood or payoff, Then I try to guessimate the “better”. This is just approximations. So it takes cautions. For Longs, I’ll take the lowest downside and upside. For Shorts, I’ll take the highest downside and upside. Edward Thorp : “Bet only when even the worst situation looks good”.
Like card counting. There are profitable systems. And there are +EV situations, hands. I know Black Jack is a low uncertainty process. The domain, probabilities, are finite.
youtube.com/results?search_query=groove+dub+techno -Can I trade 100% Inline With My Plan And Rules On The Next Trade I Take?