This short is what I call a "sucky trade." But it was still a good trade. How can it be both? 'Cause I followed my rules and got out at my stop which was set on 15 ticks today. Times are USA Mountain Time After taking me out, the market immediately went my way for over 30 points (120 ticks).
A little pre-market action this morning. 6 good, 1 bad. Ideally, I don't trade until the NY open, but when I see a setup, I am almost compelled. Notice the disadvantage of the line-on-close chart. It doesn't show the volatile wicks on the trades. Here is the location of this action in relation to the overnight run up. The market was WAY up overnight, after being way up yesterday. All together it was about 9 or 10% in less than 24 hours. To me, this demands a fade response. But I didn't just jump in indiscriminately, I waited for my short entry setup which includes a pop in downtrend.
Last sampling of the day. I was in full scalp mode again today, with the volatility. My target is about 5 ticks, but it is often less or more. These were all shorts in this section. Here is the expanded version of the chart above. Had I held, I could have gotten about 70 points to the bottom, but who really knows where the market is going to go? There are so many variables. You see a trade that meets your criteria, and you go for it. You don't spend your time with regrets of any kind if you followed your process. 10:30 my time is 12:30 NY time. The market had just made a nice big double top near 2740 ES at that time. That was my clue to try shorts. I correctly believed that the big boys were toying with the retail bulls.
I posted that at the end of the day on Tuesday, so I was referring to Monday. But I have taken a micro trade or two on Sunday evenings before. Although that is family time, and I shouldn't be trading...
I got a net of $268 yesterday on mostly shorts. This is my highest day so far numerically. This was a 4.3% gain on the day. Looking for even more explosive action today and next week as earnings are coming out next week and the virus still seems committed to continue its deadly campaign. Trying to be prudent with fast profits and small losses.
I'm sorry if I come across rude (definitely not trying to be), but is this what you do full time? Though I haven't studied your trades but you do seem profitable - at least since doing this challenge. Why don't you size up, since I see your average trade yields less than $10 profit/loss. Surely the account can handle a 10x swing (ie an ES contract) . If after 5 trades you see it doesn't work for you, you can always size down, but if you have an edge and the stats are correct after 5 successful trades you'll be freerolling the account (just go back to micros after 5 losing trades until you regain your confidence). This coming to you from someone who traded Full time for a decade and 100x-plus larger account. Treat the trades like units, if you can be profitable to start and just focus on your trades, you'll be golden - don't think of the money!!!
It was discussed before 7out, and personally I feel sstheo is probably better of sticking to his plan: growing his account on a slow and steady pace. I would not call 2% slow by the way. Though my account is a bit bigger I also switched to MES a couple of weeks ago. With this volatility a couple of normal stops with ES is all it takes to be 1k in the red and that would hurt his account for sure. He would probably be affected emotionally, I know I am. Even when a strategy is very clear there are a lot of decisions to be made to manage the trade, and being completely relax helps to think clear. Your advice is great but being so experienced you probably forgot how trading with scared money feels. I don't mean this in a negative way, take it as a compliment: you are a more mature trader. I look at it this way: if he keeps up what he is doing he will be trading regular ES soon enough with peace of mind, so why rush and make it more difficult emotionally?
Thanks for the interest and the confidence. With all this volatility, I am just not ready yet to go for it. Several people have tried to get me to do it, and I will get there. The whole reason for the slow growth is to prepare me mentally for the full ES contract (or NQ or YM, whatever I am trading when I get there). I have a long and painful history, but I am optimistic.
Hey, it's an MES party! 2% seems pretty good to me, and everyone seems to want to rush me... Thanks for writing it so I didn't need too, hahaha. And I do still feel scared, yes. As should everyone who is in this market. This is nuts!!!