$2,000 to $200,000 in 2020 at 2.00% per day.

sstheo · Mar 4, 2020

Seaweed said:
This is why this 2% is a little tricky. The 2% line will get steep because what you're tracking on the Y axis is profit. 2% of $1,000 is clearly much less than 2% of $10,000.

This is exactly why I was saying that what is important is to focus on the ticks/points that are made, and the number of contracts is adjusted simply based on account size. Granted, this volatility does necessitate adjustments, but ideally, what we want to see is that you're making the same number of points on average per day today, as you will be a month from now. The only difference will be that if you trade 2 micro contracts now, maybe a month from now you would be trading 8.

Doing it this way will I think really show consistency more. The graph would essentially be flat, but your PnL would be parabolic. And honestly, I think this is the more important metric. If you keep tracking profit and increase contracts, then the PnL will go parabolic, but if you track points per contract, then this will really show if the consistency and progress is there.

Put another way, imagine in a month you're making an average of $300 per day, instead of the $150 now, but your number of point per contracts drops in half. This would be almost a little worrying because it might show that with a bigger account, you're having more hesitation to put on trades. Of course fluctuations like this will be common, but its a better metric to follow.

Many people blow up when they start trading larger accounts because the money is a big deal. Risking $20 on a trade doesn't seem like much, but maybe $200 is a bit more, but $2000 risk is huge. Mathematically it's all the same if the accounts are larger respectively, and we all know that futures can handle such volume. The stock guys of course maybe cannot move 10k of shares as easily as 1k of shares, so that makes their strategy a bit liquidity dependent, but not so much with futures. But since people do blow up, and its usually because the size gets to them, its important to take size out of the equation.

The way I picture it is this. You check your account balance and see you have $3k, so that means you can trade 4 contracts. So you set your platform to 4, and then just go about taking trades. In 2 weeks if your account is 5k, you set your platform to 6 and carry on as usual. You don't even think about the money because its all about capturing the ticks and you do everything exactly the same.

If only it was so easy, but this is how I picture what you're trying to do.
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I could not have written it any better myself. Perfect. Thanks.

Sekiyo · Mar 4, 2020

monet said:
2% is 2%, it doesn't change. What do you mean, it's going to get pretty steep pretty fast?
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2% is exponential.
Same as 3% is exponential.

2% from 2k is fine.
2% from 2M is different.

sstheo · Mar 4, 2020

Sekiyo said:
2% is exponential.
Same as 3% is exponential.

2% from 2k is fine.
2% from 2M is different.
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I agree that 2% is unsustainable once we run into to liquidity issues. And the plan is not to get there; I will stop with the goal once (or rather IF) I get to $200k at the end of the year.

Micro MadMan · Mar 4, 2020

Are you closing the account at 200K or are you just going to stop growing it at that level and run a set number of contracts at that level?

Also out of curiosity do you perform the same on a simulator, worse or magnitudes better? I perform so much better on a sim which reveals psychological problems on my end.

sstheo · Mar 4, 2020

Micro MadMan said:
Are you closing the account at 200K or are you just going to stop growing it at that level and run a set number of contracts at that level?

Also out of curiosity do you perform the same on a simulator, worse or magnitudes better? I perform so much better on a sim which reveals psychological problems on my end.
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@Micro MadMan Great question! You are making me think about BIG things... LOL. I would (will?) probably take out $100,000 and keep going at 2% per day. Rinse, Repeat.

Or I will just scale back to 1% and take it slowly to $300,000. OR just do as you suggest and find my best size and just try to do $1000 per day or something like that. I know guys who do $3k to $5k per day, so I think it is doable.

I have thought about some longer term options trading too, but I really like to have the short term edge. I have been burned so many times with options and swing trading. Let's see, in one week the market dropped 16%. Be right or die. Hmmm. Unless you are doing complex options... If you were a put seller, you blew up last week. If you bought calls, you blew up last week.

Regarding the sim, candidly, I can't trade on a simulator. I only last about 2 days with a new idea then I have to go live to test it. It is sad, but true -- I don't have enough self-discipline to make the test real. Fortunately, like you, I like the micros...

sstheo · Mar 4, 2020

I missed the $4,000 mark by $6.49 to end the day at $3,993.51. Oh well. Tomorrow is a new day.

Today was another day for the history books. I read it was the 2nd largest ever DJIA rise.

Because of the early apparent volatility, I only took single micro trades again--29 of them. At $92 profit, that is $3.20 or 6 ticks average.

sstheo · Mar 5, 2020

The highs last night looked fishy to me. Indeed it was all smoke and mirrors:

This is a nutty market, and I need to be more careful and more patient. Why? I tried some "oversold" longs this morning and got creamed. Fortunately I was using just one micro.

I am down ~$48 to start the day, but the day is still young....

sstheo · Mar 5, 2020

I recovered the early losses, and am up over $50 now. Here are 4 short MYM trades near the high of the day (so far).

Thank heavens for the micros.

The spreads are HUGE today, but most of my winning trades are limit in - limit out, so it is working for me. With my losses, it is GET OUT NOW!

sstheo · Mar 5, 2020

If this volatility keeps up, I will keep trading with just one micro at a time. As long as I can meet my daily 2% goal with just one micro, then I will trade just one. The risk with three or even two micro contracts is just too high. This trading is fast and furious. I love it like this! But I must be prudent too. I cleared $100 net and am done for the day.

nooby_mcnoob · Mar 5, 2020

That's some crazy intraday drawdown, nice work.