This infographic was posted in another thread: https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimed...png?uuid=44e9a602-d484-11e7-b2b7-9c8e992d421e AAPL: $800 billion market cap All the world's gold: $7.7 trillion Derivatives market: between $500 trillion and $1 quadrillion - "The truth is no one really knows the size of the market" Interesting stuff if not a little unsettling.
No offense @sstheo , but I have to call it the way I see it, and it sounds to me like you had a bit of a crash in your account. You can talk all you want about how you have less time to post, how your mentor is saying you're distracted, etc., but if you made $500 instead of your typical $100, you would be in here sharing this. (ie. you would be sharing a success if it happened, instead of switching gears which is what happens after a failure) There never really was any point, in my humble opinion, to you sharing long posts. Those cute little screen captures of the largest drops took a while to assemble, but it really has nothing to do with how you trade. All you had to do in this journal, and all I ever thought your intentions were, was to share your trades and the growth of your account. This just requires a chart upload along with a screen capture of your account balance or whatever you were willing to share. It was supposed to be as simple as making an average of 20 ticks per day, just as an example, and then trading 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc. contracts based on the account going up every $500. The way I read what you wrote, its as if you're explaining that even higher internet speeds and wider stops couldn't stop the carnage to your PnL. Heck, even switching instruments is now on your radar because of the huge volatility. Mind you though, I do completely agree with this. The NQ was moving 10 points in 1 second. The only way to combat this was to literally increase the stop to 30 or 40 points and trade only 1 contract. (but it sounds like your 40 tick stop, 10 NQ points, just wasn't enough, and it clearly wasn't) I bet you got frustrated by the stop-outs after the violent moves, probably right after entry (it was happening to me as well). And so now because of this, you're saying you're going to be posting less because you need more focus, and switching instruments, and blah blah blah, but really, its just probably because of a horrible day with many small losses that added up. When I look at the 1 minute chart, it really doesn't look much different than any other day if I don't focus on the price scale. But when I add in just one piece of information, like my lines indicating every 50 points, its clear how huge these moves were. If we consider the NQ has a range of roughly 100 points each day, give or take, but now see a range of 400 or so, I think this means we have to increase stops by a factor of 4, and reduce size by 4, and then we get some equivalency. Of course its easy for me to say all this in hindsight, but that chart above really doesn't much different than this next one I picked at random that looks almost similar in terms of how it moves up from the open, and down to the open again, and then back up. But when we look at those same 50 point lines, it becomes obvious what the difference is. Anyway, I guess what I'm saying is that I wish I'm wrong and I wish that you didn't have a horrible day, but I feel like if I read between the lines, there is quite a bit more to the story. And now you're going about changing everything yet again, and the goal of this journal is completely lost. I really wanted to see you succeed and think you can, but simplification is key. There is no need to make long posts, but just sharing how the day turned out is really all a journal needs.
Your treatise on volatility is amazing. Thanks. Indeed I did have a bad initial part of the day Friday, but I survived, thanks to the late day rally on Friday. (Apparently from a leaked Goldman Sachs memo saying the Fed will cut rates .50%, as if they know). My trading really sucked this week, and I don't like to post sucky trading results when things are anomalous. What is to be learned from a black swan like last week? People will be dissecting it for decades now. But for me, the lesson is this: IF things look irrational, then I just need to stay away. A 2% upside target is pretty dumb when the risk of a 10% downside looms large. Besides, FLAT is a lot easier to trade. I have decided not to change my trading at all for now. I am staying with the MNQ and the MYM contracts until I get to at least $5000 in the account. At that point I may try the NQ or the YM or wait until I get to the $10,000 mark first, as stated in a previous post.
Apparently Jerome Powell said this on Friday, and so it wasn't just a rumor. "“The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.” Is this a cut? It is not. Will a rate cut cure a corona virus infection? This whole market is looney.
You'd benefit from expanding your view. It's less looney... https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/central-banks-words-of-assurance-have-short-life-202003021221
25 micro contracts traded today. $231.00 gross profit - 19.50 comm and fees = $8.46 per contract or 17 ticks average per contract traded. WOW, what volatility! Did we has as big an up day today as we did a down day on Thursday? It certainly looked like it. With as fast as things were moving, I traded only 1 contract at a time and still had my stop fairly wide. I got some extra trades in right at the end of the day. Here are three losses, and I did slip and scale in on one trade here right at the end of the day. (2 pm my time = close of market.) green line = good, magenta line = bad
although I enjoy your thoughts and posts.. you may be overthinking a lot of this. Just saying. You probably know that though. Keep at it man!
It depends on if this strategy is even scaleable no? also if he increases his size he needs to assume a new P/L profile
Wait until you get a 10k account before going full. I was doing well with the micros and jumped to a full way too early, and one bad day with a full equals a lot of good days with the micros ha ha.
I really do like the idea. I know I could easily go to the E-minis right now at $3,800, but I am trying to set a repeatable and gradually expanding psychological margin of error. Thanks. And yes, I hate the extra commissions, but if all goes well and I stay on the 2% path, then I will be to $10k in 50 trading days or about 2 months.