Hey, @sstheo - following and quietly cheering for you, as always. Do you have any suggestions on learning how to trade futures? I've been trying for a couple of months now, but without a consistent idea of what to look for, I'm not doing much more than taking random guesses (well... I'm actually positive overall, but guessing is not exactly a strategy for the long term.) This thread may not be the best place or time to ask, but you're one of the few people I see who a) trades futures, b) is willing to post his results, and c) are successful enough that you can take on this kind of a challenge for yourself. Any ideas or even a general direction would be highly appreciated.
Hahaha. Look at my trades from yesterday. All short. So is my bias long? Nope! In fact my macro bias has been very bearish - to my detriment. This incorrect short bias has been my big challenge as the freight train continues to barrel up the hill with each tweet and Fed funny-money magic show ("Poof! New money!!!!") and historic trade agreement (seriously- bravo to both nations). That last post was merely to show that I need to CONSIDER the long side to allow myself to take more long-side trades, especially at the All Time Highs. I have taken many, many short trades on UP days and also lots of longs on DOWN days. I truly consider myself an equal-opportunity "high probability" momentum scalper. My goal is to "trade what I see" each and every moment during the trading day.
Apart from long term investment, there are in general these three types of TRADERS: 1) traders who are always winning no matter the market is UP or DOWN: For these people, they align them with the trend or directions of market by the minute, the hour or the day depending on their styles; they establish a solid and reliable strategy/system and also mentally are alert that market has the absolute power and if they want to be winners they need to be on the right side of the market, following the market but not fighting the market. 2) Traders who are winners only when market is on their side: these traders for some reason got certain bias and based on their limited resource or analyses they got stuck with their conviction that the market should go either up or down in their wishful model, if there are 10 major factors in moving the market one way or the other, they tend to pick 3 or 5 that fit their models and stick them to their head, as they got some success in their previous experience that also become their burden; Ironically, market would often play very cruel jokes on them and smack them in the face. 3) Traders who most of time are losing the game no matter the market is up or down: For these unfortunate traders, they either wait until the run almost over to get into the move and chase the stock or enter the stock at a premature timing, and in both cases got shaken out at one point, or they got a faulty or half baked system that constantly give them wrong signals among some correct ones, or they just randomly play the market without consistent strategy/system in addition to other psychological issues.
Great summary @jl1575. Thanks. Very insightful. I am in the #2 group still, but I am much closer to #1 than many traders. I know a few #1 traders. In this journal I hope to document my full transition into a #1 trader.
started new $10K account this year and here's performance reporting out of Ninja so far. will be managing lot size based on modified Kelly method. my system is pretty much always in and i focus on times of highest volatility. i quit intraday trading years ago and focused on long term swing and trend trading which is still most of what i do trading/investment wise. decided to start an "experiment" this year. best of luck with yours.
FUTURES TRAINING #1 The Natural Progression My journey to this point has been a very long and painful one. If someone came to me in real life and asked if they should day trade futures or FX or anything else, I would say "NO. Don't do it. Don't waste your time and money. The markets are all stacked against you. The deep -pocket professionals have been training for years to fake you out and take your money. 90% of traders lose everything within mere months. Go get a job." Depressing, I know. But that is the reality. So seriously please consider walking away with your bank account intact. Still here? Fine. You asked me a legitimate question and yes, I am willing to share. I agree to give you ideas and general direction. I assume you have (1) Time and (2) Discretionary funds (3) Persistence (4) Patience (5) Ability to handle losses- believing you will ultimately win in the end. So let's see if we can help you (and maybe others) shave some time off the learning timeline: 1. Trade on a sim account. There is ZERO point to putting any money on the line until you can come out positive at the end of most days with a gain. As tempting as it may be to just try a few live trades, it is just gambling at this point. 2. Trade the YM. The YM is a little less volatile than the NQ, yet has finer tick gradations than the ES. This will let you get in and out with less slippage. I think you will agree that $5.00 is a lot less than $12.50 for a market order. The RTY is good too, but the YM usually has more action that the RTY. 3. Enroll in TUYT. "The University of YouTube" is totally awesome. There are literally hundreds of educators eager to share their hard-won methods. Some want to sell you courses, and others love to hear themselves talk. But I guarantee you will find lots of basic, intermediate, and advanced trading ideas to get started. But you do NOT need to buy any courses. I have watched a lot of stuff and the quality of the free ideas is really good. 4. Find an edge. You must find an edge. What is an edge? Simple. It is something about the way you perceive the market that lets you earn at least a bit more than you pay, LOL. You may not find the edge for many months. But don't give up. I will share with you some of the "edges" that I have found. 5. Be net positive for 4+ weeks on Sim. Before you put real money on the line, become consistent. Only after 4 or more weeks should you go on to step 6. Why 4 weeks? Because each month there are several news releases, the biggest of which is the Non-Farm Payroll report (NFP). If you haven't traded on an NFP Friday, then you have a wake up call coming! 6. Trade one contract of the Micro YM. Now it is time to start seeing the fruits of your labor with little risk. The micro YM or "MYM" contract is the best micro for beginners in my opinion, for the same reasons mentioned above in #2. The micros are 1/10 the size of the E-minis. 7. Be net positive for 4+ weeks with MYM. Take your success and build on it each day. If you have a bad day, get back up and keep going. 8. Add one micro contract at a time. You must train your brain to handle the extra stress of potential loss and the euphoria of wins. Both of these will screw up your trading! And just like slowly increasing your abilities to do push-ups or bench presses, there is a natural progression that must take place. I think all the trouble with the funding companies is that the traders are just not ready to handle 3 to 5 to 12 full-sized contracts out the gate, and they get creamed. You are not scaling in and out at this time, but going all-in and all out. 9. Once you are succeeding with 5 micros, then try one full YM. Rather than wait for 10 micro contracts, I think it is time to try the YM after you are succeeding at 5 micros. But you really must be winning most days before you take the next step. 10. Earn $50 per day on the YM. Once you are net positive after 4+ weeks and can earn $50 per day and have earned $1000, then you have reached an important milestone. You can add another YM, or try the NQ or RTY or ES. Take it slow. Build the trading muscle. Congratulations! Once you complete #10 you have graduated from basic training. sstheo Coming up (dates not set). Training #2, The most important Rules to follow. Training #3, Observations about markets and what makes them move. Training #4, Some of the "edges" that I have discovered.
You are up $4k in 2 weeks with a 73% win rate and an average per-trade net profit of $10. This is awesome! Please start a journal and share the link here? Your progress is certainly worth tracking. I have been looking at swing trading, and I can see the appeal. But for now I will try to be flat by noon each day, and for sure flat by the close. Keep it up.
This. Is. AWESOME! I've saved it, will re-read again and again, and will start implementing it the moment the markets open again. Got a huge amount of immediate value out of it right away, in that you put actual numbers and specifics on it: 4+ weeks in sim, 5 MYM, etc. Also: yes, I'm committed (or, as some might say, damn well should be, for public safety...) - if you take a look at my ET journal, I've been doing options for most of a year, have kept losses down via a death grip on risk management, and am rather nicely net positive over that entire period. That's not to say I'm any sort of a guru; the market will teach you humility if you're lacking it. But I'm surviving, I learn well, and I don't quit. Thanks so much - I really, really appreciate it!