Thanks for the well-wishes. I loved your proposed prize, LOL. I try to trade only during the NY session, but I can imagine liquidity issues. I did hear that the micros volume has increased dramatically in the last 6 months, so maybe it is spilling over to other time frames as well. Good luck.
Good advice. If I see stellar trading conditions where everything seems to be clicking, then I should consider keeping the machine on. Thanks. Most days, things do dry up a bit around 11:40 because of the NY lunch time. And because I have real estate stuff to do, that is a good time to focus. (During trading hours while I am waiting for setups -- I am working. But without question, things are not ideal for work OR for trading without complete focus.)
You are trading so much your broker loves you. If your edge is not consistent you are just making millions for them.
@volpri Wasn't that a great article? Most days I can hear the beautiful market music, with catchy melodies and swelling crescendos. But candidly, I have been faked out by the Fed way too many times and "bullish expansion" sends shivers down my spine. A strongly rising market is my most problematic market condition - and the one I am trying to work on the most - which is so freaking ironic since the market seems to rise more than it falls. If I just bought the low each day, imagine how many 4-monitor setups I could afford after 13 years of trading! I will probably reference this challenge of mine later-- my hesitancy to "go with" short squeezes or out-of-balance massive buying. But for now, know that I haven't made my $200k prior to this day because I have a lot of trouble trading bias-free (especially with no short bias). Let's all listen and quickly determine what kind of music the big boys are playing each day and stay in-sync with them and maybe even get a little jam-session going.
Agreed. All my brokers really love me. But I don't mind paying them--as long as I come out on top at the end of the day. I take 10 to 20 trades a day on average. I am working on getting that below 10, and 7 today was good. It's only "over trading" when you are losing money. I make a LOT of base hits. And it's the base hits that usually win the baseball game. But my style is definitely a scalping style. Yet is 10 ticks really scalping? And I do hold some trades for much longer. At least I am trying to. Of course I will try for bigger trades, but I won't let many 10-tick trades go by without trying to get involved. While overall the market is bullish, technically, about 70% of the time the market is ranging. And that is my focus. Ping pong. Play the edges. And so there you have it. The edges are my edge! And because the range trading is my focus 70% of the time, I do have trouble with the breakout expansion trades as mentioned previously. The market is seeking value elsewhere, and I am often still trying to fade the move. But I am working on it. This is why I need this journal. It helps me to be more objective in my trading reflections. It is the 30%, the strong trends, that I struggle with. Crazy, huh? The irony is not lost on me. I certainly am in the minority. Most traders make most of their money on two or three big trends during the day. But they often get chopped up in the ranges. So we are opposite. By the time they finally catch that big trend, I often have already made my money for the day from big consolidations and have moved on. But then I miss great opportunities and often get slaughtered on the trends. Imagine if I could be 100% competent, and trade both ranges and trends with equal finesse?
Why not? And why does it seem really improbable? Do yourself a huge favour and eradicate this thinking and any political/economical viewpoints when you're trading. Do I remember incorrectly or was there not a week or row of days in your old journal where you were saying the same thing, i.e., markets being too high? Most people find this market irrational, but that's not a basis for flat out going against it. It was 'too high' 300 points lower and can easily go even higher from here. Anyway, good luck on your journal! PS: Maybe it's better to focus on daily consistency instead of a fixed % amount? The daily offer is not constant. Some days offer little - some days offer a lot. If you feel pressured to make a buck on a slow day you can easily start racking up losses.
Thanks so much for the great post. Shorts at rollover tops? Check. Shorts in consolidation ranges? Check. Shorts in an expansion downtrend? Check. Long trades in ranges? Check. Long trades from "oversold"? Check. Long trades in expansions to the upside? NOT SO GOOD YET. Eradicating the "Certainly is overbought!" idea would truly be the best favor I could give myself this new year. Indeed, I struggle with my short bias constantly. I must let each day stand on its own. Let each hour stand on its own. Ignore the All-Time Highs as a "guaranteed overbought zone." Why do I even think this in the first place? History shows that trends usually continue!!! I think what I need to do is seriously ask myself each day "What is the bullish case?" and each 30 minutes or so determine good LONG entry positions - both near the lows (looking for a reversal on a "balance" day) or above all the action as a breakout and expansion above the action of the day ("seeking new value" day). And after determining the ideal entries, I need to promptly hit "BUY" when the price gets there. No delay, no second-guessing. With my stop I am protected. If my confidence is low, I can still use just 1 micro. But at least I am progressing in my ability to trade all market conditions. THE GLOBAL and U.S. BULLISH CASE. Yes, the geopolitical climate is uncertain, but Capital, like water is going to flow to where it gets the best return. The stock market has some great companies run by some very smart people. People around the world want someplace "safe" to park their dough. Earnings are strong. Rates are low. The Repo purchases by the US Fed are breaking all the central bank intervention records! Fund managers are told to "buy" not sell. Because of the last recession there is still a lot of money on the sidelines, but the higher we go, the more people jump back in because they have a fear of missing out (FOMO). And finally, on a technical note, there are lots of misguided "It's Overbought!" people like me who short but then fuel even more buying when our stops are hit. I am sure this "bullish rationale" list can go on and on. In fact, I may try to add to it later in order to retrain my brain. Yep. I see that the market can go much higher from here. Will I handsomely profit from the move? Or will I fight it all the way up and merely break even or worse? Will I allow myself to see the long entries and have the confidence to take them? Let's find out. Thanks again for waking me up @Laissez Faire