you are probably diversifying a bit too much? it is much better to master '1' commodity at a time if you are trying to developed a volatility based system. however if you are well capitalized i.e. you are working with an account size of atleast $100k then i guess at the rate you are going you may be able to figure it out in due time. don't overtrade!
Had a good gain on my Sugar short from 7.02 and covered Tues at 6.32. We should see a consolidation phase caused by commerical buying.
I'm not overtrading. You have to look at correlated positions. Read Market Wizards Marcus and Kovner section. If you go long Euro and Swiss Franc to the Dollar each at 3x your capital, then that's pretty much the same trade, then at 6x your capital that can be considered overtrading. "Master 1 commodity"? Well, I think that there aren't many good trading opportunities for a single commodity in a given year, perhaps several intermediate term multi-week holding period ones in a trading range market. If it's a major bull market, of course there's ideally just one trade... go long and stay long if you don't get stopped out. I am the system... using technicals, fundamentals, and cycles.
That's something I'm improving on. A big loss can wipe out most of your trading profits. I think it's important to have a rule that you're always using x amount of leverage per position no matter what. The worst thing is to build and build equity, then you think you're the man, and you double and triple and quadruple your normal position on the next trade(s)... a trade that's probably influenced by your ego, then Wham! ... lose your profits and then some. This cycle can repeat over and over again if you don't monitor yourself with diligent self-observance.
The trade deficit numbers came worst than expected. Despite that, the USD is relatively strong. I'm getting out of my long SF pretty soon. Bottom fishing might be good for stocks. Long ES 1083.50 EN 1393.50 approximately. Scaled out of a little long Cocoa on rise today because I was somewhat overpositioned. Discipline!
Decided to exist some longs on the close with a good profit. SLs(Sell Longs) ES 1099 EN 1418.50 We might see some downward consolidation overnite.
Looking for a potential short term top in USD Index next week, and opportunity to go long SF. Sugar in downtrend mode, but I wouldn't short it. OJ should continue down/sideways for next several months, and I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole with either a short or long.