CALL: .... September 9, 2010. Asian tigers will collapse again in repeat of 1997 contagion. Quite likely little Thailand will lead the charge just as she did back then. Nikkei and Shanghai composite have already declined a bit, but the laggards have to join in and then they all go south together in accelerated mode. THAILAND is being used as PROXY for ASIA for reasons I'll outline later in the thread. No, pussy has zip to do with it! When will the collapse start? .... soon = trendline break in daily (top line, then lower line) and a possible monthly chart hit of 50% Fib (could it go to 61.8% or 78.6%? ... it could but since Jones is ready, they've all got to go together. Thailand daily Uploaded with ImageShack.us Thailand monthly Uploaded with ImageShack.us
I made an incorrect call on Thailand Index's TOP in mid-april. The SET index continued higher. That was an early exit call - so I was WRONG. But there was a much bigger problem with my analysis. In fact there was something so important that totally escaped me - heck, I didn't even consider it. I can't use the excuse that the new revelation occurred because I viewed the monthly timeframe - fact is I view the monthly all the time. So there are no excuses. see Page 5 of thread below for several coterminus comments on SET and the top etc. (try not to get distracted for obvious reasons ) http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=184014&highlight=SET
As small as the country Thailand is and as seemingly inconsequential other than the fact that it lead the charge in the asian contagion, there is ONE beautiful aspect of it that is directly in line with my call on the US dollar. Thailand's stock index is pretty much in line with its currency, the Thai Baht, which right now is the world's strongest currency (among majors and possibly most minors, many of which I don't view, so there might be exceptions, although that would surprise me) So here's the key .... when USD is in a rising trend versus Baht, Thailand's stock index goes down. If my call on the dollar is a bullrun wave 3, then Thailand is set to crash as per a collapse of the Baht aka a repeat of 1997 contagion effect - all this is in line with my wave C down call for thailand SET index as shown in the first post. As always all analysis is my own and at this particular time there is not a single person, analyst or other, who agrees with me - definitely not in Thailand. More later
Nikkei: The SHORT continues unabated .... it was called April 15, 2010 here ... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=179613&highlight=lambda Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Nikkei overall short continues on daily chart; will add to short at the top of the current rally for the next leg down which should be a 3rd wave. The current rally was called here and short-timers were warned to TP if trendline got taken out ... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=204269 current chart below Uploaded with ImageShack.us