I predict in the next 12-20 months we should peak at about 18% unemployment. I also see a deep dive in the markets come this fall once the new presidential hope fades and conditions continue to worsen. I will be posting more details later on why I see this happening.
You speak as if that was inevitable. I lay you $5k against your $2.5K that U3 wont go that high. We could escrow the money with someone trustworthy in the forum. The bet will be ended once your time frame expires. And yes I'm serious
A few simple reasons why you will see such an increase. #1 Our economy is tailored towards consumer borrowing and spending. and importing goods/services via cheap labor. money goes mainly in one direction, we are net borrowers. Consumers borrow money, they then purchase goods made outside of the US. If you look at consumer debt at the the last 15 years you will see a long term rapid increase, with savings decreasing. The bull market follows the trend of increased consumer leverage and decreasing cost of goods due to the importation of goods and services with borrowed money. This is unsustainable. During the 1982 9.8% unemployment consumers still had the capacity to purchase without having to worry about servicing a large debt overhead. We also had more capacity to absorb workers in the early 1980s Anyhow I will be posting much more details later.
unemployment will not even reach 15%. if ur predicting 18% then we are all in for a world of hurt. the dow will break 5000 and complete anarchy will occur. But this will never happen.... 1. cuz ur a moron 2. obama wont let it happen, stimulus stimulus and then we'll have another stimulus before we get to 18%