Seeing as no-one posts/discusses trading strategies any more is anyone interested in revisiting and maybe improving on an old strategy called 1713 (or to give it it's full title '171322182723', originally developed by a guy called Ivan Sivak and sold for ~$100) The strategy is pretty simple, in fact I had an EA which traded it automatically but I've lost it so if anyone wants to write another one please let me know! The 1713 part of 171322182723 refers to Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd 1713 Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd 2218 to Usd/Jpy 2723 to Usd/Chf The strategy, example using Eur/Usd: 15 minute bar chart Note the closing price of the 2am EST bar (ie the price at 2.15am), so for example yesterday 9th April it was ~1.3270 When the close of a subsequesnt bar is >1.3270+17 then Buy, or when the close of a subsequent bar is <1.3270-13 then Sell, ie close greater than 1.3287 or less than 1.3257. Stop loss ?? pips (I was using 30) If the trade goes into profit ?? pips (I used +20) then move stop to breakeven or close part and use a trailing stop on the remainder or ???? Only one trade either long or short. Use the same method on the closing price of the 8am EST bar, yesterdays was 1.3273 so a Buy at a close greater than 1.3290 or Sell at a close less than 1.3260 Looking at yesterdays Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd it would have worked out quite well. It's important to wait for the close of a bar to avoid spikes. None of this is set in stone so if you've got any ideas/comments then feel free, I didn't come up with the idea so I won't be offended
Is the time of day critical? Roughly coinciding with NY market and London market openings? How did he determine + or - 17 pips? I'll look at it more over the weekend. Besides, what's the worst that could happen? http://i43.tinypic.com/2pynlzs.jpg[/IMG]
Yep time of day seems to be of the essence and like you say coincides with market opens, in fact I think some of the variations even used particular days. There were a few of these kind of breakout strategies doing the rounds about the same time (Big Ben is one I remember), it's a few years old now. I don't know how he arrived at those numbers it could just be trial and error but the 3 pips difference is obviously allowing for spread. The original one didn't use the close price by the way, that's something I added to try and avoid spikes so it might not actually be an improvement! It's ideal for automating because it's so simple, I kinda miss having something ticking away in the background automatically.
Are we using the 2:00 am or the 2:15 close to determine direction? Example, this morning EUR/USD closed 1.3184 on the 2:00 mark, 1.3189 at 2:15. Which is the trigger? GBP/USD appeared to meet the criteria, also, both retraced but a trailing stop may have worked.
The 2am close, so this morning... Gbp/Usd 2am Close 1.4678 Buy if Close >1.4695 Sell if Close <1.4665 Buy triggered on the close of the 2.30am bar which closed at 1.4705 (say filled at 1.4709) +15 with a 20 pip trailing stop (the high was 1.4744) Eur/Usd 2am Close 1.3183 Buy if Close >1.3200 Sell if Close <1.3170 Buy triggered on the close of the 3am bar which closed at 1.3209 (say filled at 1.3211) -15 with a 20 pip trailing stop (high was 1.3216) Both trades went into profit so there's probably a better way to manage them, maybe a tighter trailing stop, or move a stop to breakeven when x pips in profit, or maybe tighten the trailing stop the further it moves, or ??? Don't get me wrong, it's unlikely this strategy will make a ton of money but overall I found it showed profit, and seeing as it can so easily be automated it could be useful. I originally used this strategy as a training aid to help novices develop the discipline of being patient and opening/closing trades without hesitation regardless of profit/loss, and also to show that in the scheme of things individual trades don't mean diddly, win or lose. For a ludicrously simple mechanical system I think it's got potential.....
We'll watch again at 8 EST. If I can, I'll post the trade. Not sure I can track all 4 pairs, I'm a little slow on the uptake at times! Completely off subject, I drove a cousins Z06 Corvette yesterday. 505 HP. Touched 135mph very quickly, too much traffic! Still, a very exciting car.
:eek: Damn, that's too fast for me! What's your speed limit over there, 70? Do you have speed cameras like this one (perhaps not being flame grilled )
Yep, and the 8.15 closed at 1.3260 (long filled at say 62), then more or less straight up 40 pips (too easy huh) Not really a great day to test it as it's thin but you get the idea. I don't know the best way to manage the trade once in it though.....
Since the entry is simple it's best to keep the exit simple as well. You can use a fixed stop and exit. And maybe use a 2:1 risk/reward. So for EUR maybe you risk 15 pips to make 30 pips. you just need to be right 35% to make money. I looked at something like this on the hourly charts a little while back. I like this better as a trend following system rather than a countertrend system.