Thanks for moving the goal posts... you forgot to address the Bitcoin inflation hedge data in that 1yr, 3yr, 5yr time frame everything is becoming cheaper if bitcoin is used as the unit of account After all, you kept saying Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge when clearly everything is trending to 0 when priced in Bitcoin (except NVDA, that is a special asset beating Bitcoin, respect) https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/landing ---------- Value investing (Manhattan) real estate, Oil, gold, silver, bitcoin, facebook network effect do not have earnings, per se, but of course companies can lease out the real estate, or process the oil and sell the finished goods, or same with gold and silver for that matter, or Bitcoin's monetary network has settled over $100 Trillion in value since inception and has employed hundreds of thousands worldwide as an after effect of the many companies involved in monetizing thus network, Mara, Riot, Coinbase, Strike, Bitpay, Robinhood, PayPal or Meta has utilized the captured audience using their "free social network" by generating ad revenues ------------------ but Sharpe Ratio suddenly has no place in your investment analysis when it comes to Bitcoin but you're quick to always mention volatility when it suits your criticism of it How convenient
What cracks me up is all the outrage by Bitcoin maxis that are soooo pissed at the ETF announcement. The best is watching ragers who were just recently telling us the DEATH of Ethereum is here, and Vitalik is finally going to prison just days ago. Ohh, how they are crying a different tune now.
I think you're confused about what a hedge actually is. https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/VKopWd6tlkX0Z52ABe8fw/what-is-a-hedge/ It is completely possible and even reasonably likely for inflation to go up and Bitcoin to go down. It has happened before. This is just investing 101 kind of stuff. Just because you think something is going to go up, doesn't make it a hedge. And no I don't like Sharpe ratio. You have to look at more detail that that. Or would you really value a company who's earnings have gone from 4 to 3 to 2 billion the same as a company who's earnings have gone from 2 to 3 to 4 billion? And yes. Gold is a crappy "investment". It produces nothing. The point of gold is to hold value and protect against risk, not to gain income. An ounce of gold a month was a soldier's wage in Roman times and it's a similar amount now. Worst "investment" ever. No real appreciation over a couple millennia. That's not what it's for.
Actually, you're confused, let's ditch the word hedge and simplify it, do people that converted their fiat savings into bitcoin savings experienced a deflation in prices of all goods and services in the past 1yr, 3yr, 5yr, 10yr? Let's not conflate different ideas, inflation vs deflation seems to be a straightforward comparison I can tell you first hand that I have experienced deflation not inflation in the past 1-10 years because of bitcoin Well that's all good and fine as long as you do not bring up price volatility when criticizing bitcoin, as volatility has to be measured in the context of risk-adjusted returns You like to bring up earnings because you know Bitcoin is not a company Bitcoin is a global monetary network, which will become more valuable than AAPL, Berkshire, Geico, Coke, Nvidia, Amazon, Wells Fargo, Netflix combined
By the way, "value investors" are always pointing out earnings, dcf as the only correct way to measure the value of any investment So in their views, a Monet painting has no value, a personal yacht has no value, an empty lot in the middle of Manhattan has no value, any consumption good has no value, and on and on But that's not how the real world works, value is determined by supply and demand dynamics in the free markets When bitcoin price was $100, that was the value that the market had assigned to it as the adoption during that time was considerably less Today, the bitcoin price is over $60k and the adoption has also grown exponentially vs 2013 Pekelo always points out his shit is much rarer than bitcoin as he will produce less than 21M in his lifetime, but he forgets to say there is no demand Bitcoin is a scarce digital asset, that has demand, proven 24/7/365 with the liquidity of billions of $ worth of trading There is a reason value investors have suffered greatly during this runaway bull market... they are convinced by their idols, Buffett and Ramsay that they are smarter than the market Mark my words, value investors will continue to suffer going forward... as the money printer goes brrr
Nope. I just use terms properly. This is one of the things the crypto crowd has a huge problem doing. Nope. Value investors also look at things like price to book ratio. Like I said, Sharpe ratio is a ridiculously over simplistic way to look at something. Making decisions based on a single metric is begging to lose. If Deusch Bank's p/e ratio of 0.42 was based on actually believable accounting it would be a great buy. At that price Richard Geere is supposed to fly into town, date Julia Roberts, break up the company and sell it. A Bitcoin is just something within that network. You have no claim on the network itself. You're not buying shares of Amex. Those nodes could all switch over to processing etherium only and you would have no claim to cause them to process your Bitcoin transactions. Who says I'm suffering? Do you see Buffet out there begging in the street? I'm fine. Notably I have not had all my money disappear in the latest crypto scam.
I knew it. Every single person who trashes bitcoin has a flawed understanding about it. You are right that bitcoin only exists within the network. And the network only exists because of the nodes and miners. But this is something that can actually be monitored in real time. If the network is growing, and you're on the sidelines, you might very well be left out. But why are all these nodes on the network to begin with? Who are all these people that are investing so many resources into joining and growing this network? Why is the processing power of bitcoin mining orders of magnitude bigger than any other computational setup? Why is the network so big that if any one entity wanted to crowd out the market, it would be impossible for them to secure enough mining hardware and enough energy to be able to even make a dent? You seem to think that the network of bitcoin can easily just be turned off, but its like saying the Titanic isn't sinking, even though half the ship is below water, just because you are still dry. When the network gets so big that you realize you can't fight it or take it down, its time to join in. Or better yet, join it before everyone else knows.
Value investing appeals to the ego of the pseudo-intellectuals, but at some point you really have to take a deep dive on why you keep under performing the market? LBO's and the stuff of movies, but has it happened recently and were you able to benefit? Gordon Gecko and Richard Gere are from a time when fiat money was scarce and we had real interest rate (above inflation) The high-yield spread now is too tight, the fiat money is plentiful, a high percentage of public companies are zombie companies able to finance operations by being able borrow cheaply through issuance of debt and retail value investors are buying them to chase yields where TINA You wish to ride the coattails of Buffett, but you do not understand how Berkshire is a privileged investor which you are not Berkshire has corporate tax advantages, and boardroom decision making, and that's why insurance business is a great investment for access to large pools of capitals which has synergies to banks and access to books and financial information Valuable financial and economic and industry actionable information provided to the privileged investors not the retail value investors Did you even break down why Buffett invested in an overpriced company that has no growth growth AAPL? Perhaps it's to take advantage of the dividends and the built-in buybacks voted by the board (guess who gets a big vote) to support the share price as large investors dump shares occasionally to take advantage of the passive investors 401k, IRA's $ and other index fund flows You are suffering because you are not a Buffett privilege investor type, but just a follower that got conned through ego stroking of your above-average math skills How are you suffering but not begging? by underperforming the monetary inflation running at over 7% pa for the past 50 years, you could have simply invested in the S&P or the Nasdaq and kept up No, you are not fine, the money printer will go brrr and your net worth value will get debased If you do not want to invest in Bitcoin that's ok, at least switch to a hybrid allocation of some type where you go out further the risk curve to capture some of the returns That's a strawman tactic to switch to crypto 100,000 other coins, when you know that Bitcoin bearer scarce digital asset where you solely hold, control and protect the private keys has never experienced any scam Be better than the others that do the same thing So close and yet so far. No the nodes cannot switch to Ethereum, the decentralized networks are 100% distinct from each other. Do not trust me, go ahead and study it and I welcome further discussion But while we're here, let's explore the idea of how to value a network Facebook Social network has 3 billion monthly active users, and yet, Meta does not charge any of them, why not charge $1/mo, that's $3B or $36B/yr instant profits? Hold that thought AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile charge telecom cell phone network charges on average over $50/mo for each of their users, why do they do that and not follow Meta, give it away for free and make money through ad revenues? Visa just came out and has a 50% profit margin on their payment network, wtf? All they do is process payments, Visa doesn't even lend consumers any money so no risk of capital Banks have their swift network, their international settlement network, how much they charge for a $100k or $1M wire transfer from NY to Tokyo and how long will before it's complete final settlement? Bitcoin global monetary network, someone can transfer $1k, $10k, $100k, $1M, $10M, $100M or even a billion $ from NY to Tokyo for a fee of less than $3 (currently) with final settlement, irreversible, on average in about an hour Bitcoin global monetary network has approximately 150M users and settles more value than the visa network (over $21T/yr) And with these metrics, the value of a single bitcoin, a scarce asset that is required to utilize the global monetary network, is $70k (currently) What happens when the global bitcoin users grow to 1B and the Bitcoin global monetary network settles $100T/yr? All the while, ETF's are locking more and more supplies, companies like Microstrategy, Metaplanet, Square, are also buying up bitcoins and taking away supplies Supply and demand dynamics You say owning a bitcoin does not give us ownership of the Bitcoin global monetary network, but the only way to utilize the value of the said global monetary network is to own bitcoins the scarce digital asset And the less supplies available, the higher the price, the more demand, Bitcoin is a Veblen asset The higher the price, the more demand for it, for use as SoV, life savings, investment asset But here I am sounding like a Bitcoin salesman but to be honest, I find less than 0 value for any of the ET nocoiners to convert to being Bitcoiners now I'd much prefer that the ET nocoiners stay as nocoiners, the time to convert was before the bitcoin spot etf's, to frontrun all the Wall Street big money Any ET nocoiner that becomes a Bitcoiner now is not because of the ET supporters who have explained ad nauseum over the years why Bitcoin will go to very high price in the future as more adoption happens Any ET nocoiner will be converted because it will be the boomer cool thing, pushed by all the professional advisors to put an allocation, all the marketing mahineries by Blackrock, Fidelity, et al Please do not invest in Bitcoin. Go invest in something else, anything else, but never in Bitcoin
Boring attempt to put words in my mouth. Again. Owning Bitcoin gives you no claim on the network. This is not a hard concept. I'm not saying it's going to shutdown tomorrow, but you happening to own some Bitcoin gives you no particular power to stop it if it did.
This is true and it's a an extremely important feature of decentralization Otherwise, the US Gov, Blackrock, Fidelity, MSTR, et al would be able to have too much control Every Bitcoin participant supports the network based on incentives, even the bad actors in their own way, are working to improve the design and security for future improvements