15% upside according to Biggs

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Vishnu, Mar 22, 2007.

  1. Vishnu


    In 1987 I started a business with, and had a crush on, Biggs' daughter. The few times he visited her on weekends he was pretty hardcore. He had a stack of research reports about four feet high and he'd sit on the steps all weekend reading them and highlighting things. His fund's been doing pretty good lately and his book, "Hedgehoggin'" is worth the read.

    So I'm intrigued that on Bloomberg TV the other day he stated he felt the market could be up 15% this year. His main bet is to play the large caps. He's in OEF, which is simply the ETF for the S&P 100 (way to take risks, Barton!) and QQQQ. He also owns some of the mega caps like XOM and AIG and all the big banks like JPM MS and GS.

    I'm intrigued though by some of the sectors he's betting on. For instance, he's long CAL, LCC, and AMR, all airlines, all trading at 6x cash flows, which tells me the market thinks their cash flows won't last. If they do then these stocks have 20-50% upside in them. He's also making a big demographic bet on pharma and biotech with holdings like JNJ, WYE, and ABT. You can check out <a href="http://stockpickr.com/port/Traxis-Partners-LLC-Barton-Biggs/" target="_blank">Barton Bigg's holdings here</a>.
  2. Wow, how exotic.
  3. jem


    I used to car pool with his daughter to tennis.
  4. Barton's niece, Fiona ( formerly a Dreyfus Mutual Fund manager )is married to Stanley Druckenmiller, formerly of the Quantum Fund ( with Soros ) and back to his multi-billion dollar hedge-fund, Duquesne Capital.

    Estimated to have a net worth of about $1.8 billion.

    A buddy of mine has been his head financial futures trader for years, having joined Soros and the Quantum Fund back in 1985.

  5. I think Ken Fisher is even more bullish than Biggs from what I hear.
  6. Vishnu


    I think his picks are more interesting as well. For instance, he's in Pulte Homes, PHM.

    Here's <a href="http://stockpickr.com/members/port/Ken-Fisher/" target="_blank">Ken Fisher's top picks with some of his analysis</a>.
  7. James,

    do you guys plan to add a hypothetical portfolio equity curve to those stockpickr portfolios? I find the portfolio list nice but it would be more interesting to compare these portfolios to say the last 3/6/12 months of sp500 and see how they have would have performed.

    I understand that nobody knows what prices the respective buyers paid and some receive a waiver from the SEC to report holdings as late as possible.

    Still, I find a "hypothetical" equity curve could add a bit of visual information to a raw list of 50 symbols.
  8. Vishnu


    We give people the option to track their own portfolios and I should probably put a benchmark in there for comparison. But we don't track pro portfolios only because its mostly impossible. There's no way to know intra-quarter how these guys are trading. Really its good to know their picks just as a starting point for research but thats it. We do, when published, put out the returns of the pros, just not off of their picks.
  9. Wow I lined up stonedinvestors picks next to Ken Fishers and they don't match at all! Why is Ken so famous and stoney is the one up 32%?