15.75% return on turkey government notes?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by jjk2, Feb 4, 2008.

  1. jjk2


    what is the probability of default?
    #11     Feb 5, 2008
  2. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7225889.stm

    'Deep state plot' grips Turkey

    It is a story that has set Turkey abuzz with rumour and speculation.

    At its heart is an ultra-nationalist gang known as Ergenekon, exposed when 33 of its alleged members were seized in a police raid in late January.

    The claims widely reported in the Turkish press ever since read like a thriller.

    They allege the gang was plotting to bring down the government.

    It is claimed their plan was to assassinate a string of Turkish intellectuals, including Nobel Laureate Orhan Pamuk, fomenting chaos and provoking a military intervention in 2009.

    A "menu" of targets had already been drawn up and a hitman hired when the police swooped, according to the daily Hurriyet.

    Sabah newspaper linked the gang to the recent murder of three Protestant Christians and Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink.

    Those details - apparently leaked by police - have never been officially confirmed.

    The lawyers of several of the accused told the BBC only that their clients have been charged under Article 313 of the penal code for inciting armed revolt against the government.

    Those still detained include retired Brig Gen Veli Kucuk, an alleged mafia boss and an ultra-nationalist lawyer who provoked numerous prosecutions against prominent Turkish writers and intellectuals - including Mr Pamuk - for "insulting Turkishness".

    #12     Feb 5, 2008
  3. Difficult to put a percentage on it specifically. That the interest rate is so high means the risk of either default or currency debasement is high.

    Turkey's financial history is rotten. In 2005, they revalued their currency by 1,000,000:1.
    #13     Feb 5, 2008
  4. I visited Turkey in oktober. My mother was looking for a holiday apartment somewhere warm. I never saw anything like it: in the Alanya region alone there were 100's of empty apartments and half finished buildings and very little buyers. Project developers were offering us to pay half now and half in 2 years time.
    To call it a buyers market was an understatement. She didn't buy anything there. She's going to visit the south of Spain later this month to have a look around there.
    #14     Feb 5, 2008
  5. The real estate market is one of the slowest moving markets. Tell her to offer 30% less than asking price if whe wants to be able to sell in a few years at a profit (if she gets a profit)...
    #15     Feb 5, 2008
  6. hajimow


    This thread and similar ones that I see recently show that money is flowing out of US.
    #16     Feb 5, 2008
  7. jjk2


    as long as feds keep cutting money will continue to flow into korean bonds (5%) and other high yield fixed incomes right ?
    #17     Feb 5, 2008
  8. jjk2


    what does it mean they revalued their currency ?

    so i guess from looks of it its better to do EM instead of buying these directly.

    what about iceland, india? do these place have high risk of default as well ?
    #18     Feb 5, 2008
  9. "Revalued Currency" = repudiated old currency, issued "new" currency. The new currency was like the old currency but with 6 zeros lopped off.
    #19     Feb 5, 2008
  10. Don't they issue bonds in their local currency, the New Lira?

    If so be aware of possible devaluation, this bonds are pretty illiquid, so you may not get out fast enough in case of a devaluation or default.
    #20     Feb 5, 2008