This is a very long term chart. The bottom pane is 52 Week Average of Weekly Range in Pct. Notice that we just have one of the longest drop in weekly range in recent years. Will we go back to the old days of 2% top a week?
A slide of 40 points on the Dow and then the climb of 80 points this Friday (Dec 12) would meet either forecast of up or down earlier on this thread. Slapshot, you said that "we are in/near the top 100 or so points for this rally". Do you still feel so given this Fridays close?
DOW 15,000 is beyond the realm of possibilty, at least for the next 5-10 years. We had the biggest bubble in the history of this country. The DOW topped at 11,750. For it to eclipse this only 3-4 years after a major bubble top would be unprecidented in market history. Greenspan can print money until he runs out of trees; it can't outweigh powerful historical trends that are not in the markets favor. Consider all of the good news that is currently priced into the market. High GDP growth, low inflation, high productivity, job "creation" (dubious at best). I like DJX put options here at 10,000. Specifically June 2005's. You could buy the June 104's for 10.20. That would put your break even point at about 9400. A 6% decline in the market between now and then offers high probability IMO. The 2005 economy won't be a pretty picture.
I am beginning to sadly agree..it's too cute ..I think the election cycle is too strong....even a miss on the CC # by 5 pts could not send the mkt down today. 10,300 to 10,600 looks next; Bush is determined to get 2004..see PPT thead. Best, David
I agree . I am SS the whole MKT complex (DIA, QQQ, SPY), but seems no reprieve is at hand....I mean we sold off hard on CC #; only to reverse to close @ HOD..I am convinced FED is intervening! Sad, David
When people start shorting size just because of a number (Dow 10,000 in this case) they are gonna get hurt. Just like those who bought size when the Dow first crossed 10,000. Its kinda funny but I have a feeling that those who bought the first time are gonna be those who are selling now. And they well get rocked!!