Very fair point, Volume. Personally I do all I need to do day trading so I'm not investing in a long term or an intermediate trend. Its a co-incidental hobby to try and see where the DOW is going or even better to see how other ET-ers see where the DOW is heading. Whether its London, Tokyo, Sydney, Singapore or Hong Kong inter alia the thing is the DOW is seen as the world's marker.
Now the DOW has restored itself above 10000, is the DOW back on the ladder going to 15000? Will the oil crisis price tumble? Will the stock market take the gurus by utter surprise and head off upwards towards the heavens? Will the 'feel good factor' take charge right across the great US of A? Will there be a storming Bush election victory? Will there be one hell of a Christmas of celebration, prosperity and good cheer?
no. i think its going to stay in this 9000-11000 range for years. your going to have to trade to make any money. its a perfect market for traders.
Sure do agree that 9000 -11000 is a perfect market for traders. But if the market did go intensively bullish I will still love the gyrations of the DOW just as much.
Sounds like the most likely scenario absent any serious event. Although I would not say a perfect market for traders, chop chop usually ends in churn & burn. The biggest problem is that the institutional and retail money will not be as involved as in a bull or bear market.
I also believe that hte DOW is destined to stay in the 9000-11000 range for years. What could possibly propel it higher?
While the fundamentals may be relatively meaningless in short-term market fluctuations (thankfully), you cannot really afford to ignore them if you are thinking fairly longer term. As I understand it, the fundamentals in no way suggest that the market is presently underpriced. Quite the contrary.
some of you on this thread should study what didier sornette has written : you can go to this web site at : www.ess.ucla.edu/index.asp