14 winners in a row

Discussion in 'Forex' started by drasfs, Mar 21, 2007.

  1. drasfs


    Havnt been trading for 6 months now. Been studying on a trading idea, done in tradestation and i just tried it out yesterday. Here is the results in my live account, where i put in 2500 dollar, and the pip spread is 3, and the leverage used 200:1


    How many percent of your trades are winners?
  2. So what's your point ???
  3. Sanjuro


    With your leverage, it just takes one loser to finish your account.

    And it will eventually happen. Good Luck!
  4. You are an amazing guy!!!!! My hat is off to you!

    But you need more gearing. You want to be able
    to bet your whole wad on every trade. 2^14 is
    16,384 so your $2500 would already be up to
    nearly $50 million.

    When you get there, remember who told you
    to leverage up!

    BTW, can you lend me $5 million? It's only fair.

    Your best buddy,

  5. drasfs


    my stop loss is always 7-10 pips, so i wont lose more than that. And by the way, i just transfered a small portion of my investment money into that account, just to test out my new trading strategy,so i wouldnt say im risking my whole fortune on every trade.

    My bad, ive should told you a bit more.

    But anyway, do you guys really think im just lucky?

    say that the chance to win is 50%. so the chance to win 14 times in a row is 0.5^14=0.0000061 . This doesnt however take into account sizes of losses and winners, i can however assure you that my stop loss is always between 7-10pips
  6. toby400


    I see you post on other boards.

    You are either very lucky OR.........softening up the readership.....then...

    You will kindly offer to sell your grail...ooops !....method to mugs for a fee.:eek:
  7. you on a long journey before becoming a profitably consistent trader, i can pick this up by just your mindset, what you are focusing on and what you trying to do. I bet you get a kick out of trading and have a lot of fun........well when you become consistently profitable it becomes monotonous a bit boring until your account reaches long levels your u diversify into new markets and so on.

    You have a number of years to go and there is a less than 2% cchance you will reach there......in stocks it is higher about 5%. So my first advice to you, which you will not listen too is............dont use leverage be 1:1 for two yrs after that use everything you have learnt thus for to decide where to from but my bet is that you will find this boring and would rather opt for a leveraged 400% broker and then u will move on to fx-auto hoping those systems generate alpha....unfortunately that a fallacy as well....welcome to the wild wild west of fx. Enjoy the journey!!
  8. With your gearing, what happens if you have 14 losers in a row with a 10pip stop loss? You're down $3500...wait, you only have $2500.

    Looks like game over.
  9. If your new strategy generates about 50% win/loss ratio 'long term' then Yes you are lucky as you could easily have 14 losers in a row.

    and to say that the chance to win 14 times in a row is 0.5^14=0.0000061 is a gambler's fallacy... the trade #15 still has 50% chance of winning or you wouldn't put on the next trade because the there's a very minimal chance it will turn up a winner
  10. drasfs


    well, what do you people believe is my win ratio. Do you think it is 50%?
    #10     Mar 22, 2007