I was short going into it. Didn't turn into a crushing loser. I opened another short at 1.2176. The move did surprise me though. Just didn't see the reason for it. Pent-up energy maybe? Average price is now 1.2088 pointing down. You think it's going to go up more, like, another 100-pts? x
Does anybody on this site bother to look at an econ. calendar? Ya think maybe the 8:30 AM ET release of The C.P.I. may have affected the EUR/USD or Treasury prices? Nah, that's not possible....The planets must have been lined up at precisely 8:30AM to move prices. Nobody trades real money, so why bother to anticipate potential moves.
Interesting. Well, according to this calendar, a few numbers hit. CPI was relatively sideways. Housing was more pronounced: Painted a bit of a dour US economy picture. Not enough to spike the rate 120-pts, though. News of Operation Swarmer, timed around the Iraqi parliament convening, also hit around the NY opening, I think. Knee jerk reaction, it's beginning to look like. That particular CPI # is not gonna create a panic move like the one this morning. That spike had fear coming off of it. Fear that comes from a massive war strike. In Iraq. BAGHDAD -- "Hours before the new Iraqi parliament convened for the first time, U.S. and Iraqi troops on Thursday launched what the military called the largest air assault since the invasion...." x
CPI says it all. No inflation (so they say), no more interest rate hikes (so they hope), lower dollar (so it is).
Reasons to buy the Euro: ECB said rates going to 3.50% Soft US CPI Break of key technical resistance including range top US renewed attack on Iraq US eurodollar interest rate futures off 10 ticks, whilst EURIBOR pretty flat Reasons to sell Euro: Um, its gone up........ Can't see any reason why anyone can justify a sale of Euros here. Not saying it can't or wont happen but the only reason people seem to be selling it are because it has gone up! Yet look at lindicators like the RSI, it certainly isnt hugely overbought. It has been in a range for ages and it is just possible this break out could be the start of an explosive move up. If it falls back below 1.2075/90 then that is a different story and would probably be looking to trade from the short side again. (If you are desperate to sell Euros here perhaps look at eur/£. 6930 was the peak earlier in the week and we havent really broken this level yesterday/today despite the euro/dollar rally. The UK economy is picking up again, esp house prices, and it looks like Vodaphone could announce the sale of its Japanese arm for £40bn in the next few days. The US part could also be sold off.)