FWIW I went long yesterday at 24450 on dec YM with a 300 point stop loss. My short term charts indicate change of trend to the upside. Possible resumption of the Santa Claus rally?
The current market behaviour reminds me very much of 2007. I can quite clearly remember trading that period late 2007 and my beliefs at that time was market is only in a minor pullback, mkt will rally again and the bear market will begin in earnest in 2008. If you look at SP500 in 2007, there was no Christmas rally that year and mkt got hammered all the way until 2009. Am not saying this will replicate this time, but beliefs in a Christmas rally "just because" is not being clever.
The reason I recalled clearly, I had a large margin loan at the time and got toasted, sold via margin call at the bottom.
Absolutely. I just follow the rule that never fails - "Trade what you see, not what you think". That, plus everyone needs to make one decision as to whether they're trading or investing. Too many people think they're a trader while their stocks are rising and then an investor when they're falling.
I went to 94% cash back in late Oct. The stocks I kept have done OK (MRK, PFE, PG, CSCO), just initiated AAPL and some more CSCO yesterday. We'll see.