They have no clue! Notes made a technical bounce, last week. Read Bloomberg Bond commentary if you really wanna good laugh. They make it up as they go along.
10s: reopenings are tougher as foreign central banks tend not to buy reopenings so one must find demand elsewhere. this time dealers saved a so small ($8bn) 10Y auction --the last of a long issue for the 2005?
"later today, there will be the 3pm Tsy release of Nov. investor class bidding, which will break down who bought what at the Nov. quarterly refunding. " -MNI source
--Stone & McCarthy (Princeton)--Based on the preliminary results of our survey, most voters believe the following phrase - the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured - will be discarded at Tuesday's FOMC meeting. 62% voted for the aforementioned phrase to be struck out of next week's FOMC statement. For the meeting on January 31, 2006, 77% believed the phrase would not be present in the statement.
Do they mean the Fed is going ot stop the hikes or...the next step is a 'not so measured' 50 bp step?
After the disappointing 5Y Tsy auction yesterday, today the indirect bidders to show them massively with a 60.3%.....
Sources abroad say concerns about Iran have really fueled the fire in Tsys. "It is all anybody is talking about," one source in London says. ..but it can also be: 1) tactical asset allocation trades out of stocks in last hour of trade, and into US bonds; 2) short-covering; 3) unwinds of rate-lock swaps; 4) likely unwinds of rate-lock hedges amid pricing of deals such as Farmer Mac $500M 5-year notes; 5) buying of Tsys as stocks fell; 6) an apparent possible rejection of Wed's Tsys downside breakout lower that occurred Wed. as 10-year yield now flirting with 100-day moving average, 4.39%; 7) Mar 10-year futures buy-stops hit at 109 9/32 level; 8) fast money, commodity trading advisers forced in to buy 10Y notes; 9) record-high 60.3% 10Y TIPS indirect bid (strong US$9Bln 10Y TIPS sale today, now at a profit.) 10) Bearish Economist article says Greenspan leaving behind weaker-than-realized economy. - MNI source [edited]--
Sure felt like short's scrambling to cover at the end of the session....What will tommorrows's PPI bring?