Well, a lot of finance profs who write in Journal of Finance are rehashing stuff that has been around. About the new dude, I think the reason he doesn't sound ambitious cuz it's probably totally new to him. They hire on brilliance and talent. In fact, most of their employees never worked on Wall St before but are brilliant researchers. The reason he's not expecting much now, b/c it's like going to work for a thinktank. You sit there and play and think. They have a "campus" as their corporate building. Beautifull lawns and labs etc. Looks like a nondescript university building. Perhaps one day he'll come up with something that makes money. Maybe not. Who knows. But in the meantime, he gets paid multiples of what he would have gotten as a researcher at a leading university. The typical guy who goes to i-banking and Wall St is expecting to cash in huge. But ironically, the quiet thinking type at RenTech probably makes MULTIPLES of the typical guy on Wall St. haha. It's not always the loud mouth type A who wins in the market. It's quite deep... But get this. These geniuses who knew nothing about markets. After a few years they know quite a bit about markets combined with their math proprietary ideas. That's where the spark comes...
I googled the web and found this website: http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/sttimser.html The chart really gives me a shock. Even though I believe time series work in some extent, I at least though that the real world is more noisy and thus it is difficult to spot the pattern... You must take a look at this chart, it is simply amazing. - below is the description for this chart This general pattern is well illustrated in a "classic" Series G data set (Box and Jenkins, 1976, p. 531) representing monthly international airline passenger totals (measured in thousands) in twelve consecutive years from 1949 to 1960 (see example data file G.sta and graph above). If you plot the successive observations (months) of airline passenger totals, a clear, almost linear trend emerges, indicating that the airline industry enjoyed a steady growth over the years (approximately 4 times more passengers traveled in 1960 than in 1949). At the same time, the monthly figures will follow an almost identical pattern each year (e.g., more people travel during holidays then during any other time of the year). This example data file also illustrates a very common general type of pattern in time series data, where the amplitude of the seasonal changes increases with the overall trend (i.e., the variance is correlated with the mean over the segments of the series). This pattern which is called multiplicative seasonality indicates that the relative amplitude of seasonal changes is constant over time, thus it is related to the trend.
Yes, but it takes a certain personality type to fade a 20 pt ES news spike, to take losses accepting a mistake or to keep a position or a system through a normal drawdown or retracement. Intellect is not enough.
It is interesting to see the argument of different ppl here. Just like the market there are up and down.... Anyone has any advice on how an avg joe can apply it in a simple but profitable way. Personally, I use LSMA and EMA in different time frames to spot the trend and the different S/R levels. It may just be traditional TA but actually it also has grounds in time-series analysis. So is there a way that we can merge the TA and time-series analysis together in our everyday trading?
Dude, this is standard timeseries analysis. There are numerious books on this subject and they are using very well known methods.
i always knew that math/physics grad degrees are more valuable than most mbas out there. too bad that these so called phds waste their time/efforts making money instead finding cures for some of the incurable diseases in the world.
They are math/physics phds. WTF do they know about incurable diseases? They didn't go to med school. duh. But they could have. And probably could make great contribution. Too bad how society/markets misallocate resources. It used to be if you are really smart and go to med school you could do really well. But the definition of really well in that field can't even begin to compare to really well in hf world. RenTech/Jim Simon made $750M last year alone. Geez. Sad. But true. Smart people could and probably SHOULD devote their time and energy doing more useful thing for society as a whole. But sometimes it's not all their fault. Thanks to politicians cutting back on basic research. Else we would have nuclear fusion or even cold fusion by now. Who knows.
it's not always a waste. think about it, if your net worth is in the millions, then you can fund medical research labs and since you have a vested interest that your own money has the desired impact on society, you will probably do a better job financing research than some stupid bureaucrat