Ignoring semantic definitions for now, a 100% success rate is basically another reference to the "Holy Grail", a supposed magical trading system that will make money all the time. Does such a system exist? Well, yes and no. Yes. in the fact that there are some traders who can make money consistently in any market condition. No, in the fact that even if these traders were to publish their entire trading strategy, no one else could imitate them.
I remember reading either Market Wizards I or II, where one of the traders claimed to never have a loosing TRADE!!! I remember Schwager was pretty sceptical about that, (he should be!) and in so many words accused him of lying. Anyone remember which interview that was?
100% successful strategy? Every time an analyst on CNBC says "Strong Buy" you should go short with everything you have.
jmcgraw - It was Mark Weinstein who claimed that he had just 17 losing trades out of several thousand. (And he said 9 of those were because his quote machine went down, and he automatically exited all his positions at that point.) So the claim was that Weinstein had a 99%+ success rate on his trades. Schwager commented: "I could not verify his claims by examining account statements because his partners are vigorous in maintaining the confidentiality of [their] trading activity........The only account statements Weinstein was willing, or able, to show me was his independent entry in an option trading contest, which did indeed confirm that he multiplied a $100,000 account ninefold in nine months with 100% winning trades................Still unsatisfied, I spoke to Leigh [a close friend and partner of Weinstein].......who confirmed that of about 100 of Weinstein's trades he had personally witnessed and several hundred more Weinstein told him about on the phone (right after he put them on), he could remember only one that was a loser.........." Schwager went on to observe that Weinstein achieved that extraordinary record by pulling the trigger only when all the technical suns, moons and stars were in perfect alignment, and taking profits within minutes in many cases when prices immediately moved in his favor. Still, if anyone even comes close to 99% winners while trading thousands of times on a semi-regular basis ----- it is an almost unbelieveable accomplishment.
Let me clarify this! Remember that I defined success as NET PROFITABILITY AFTER COMMISSIONS, and NOT as just the frequency of winning trades. When I have a profitable day (60%-70% of the time), it is often the case that I have MORE losing trades than winning trades. I am not talking about success in terms of frequency of gains. I am talking about success in terms of net gains. So, I am 100% successful (in terms of net gains) on a yearly basis (d) and at the same time can actually have a winning frequency of less than 50% on any given trade.
I'm just going with the "ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE" theory... If your system/strategy made one trade a year............. who knows, it's possible a system could be 100%, but it will not remain 100% if you continually run it every year since it's start. Although it is possible. I am also assuming that if you are running a strategy you decide to run it for a long.... long time, not just one year and then claim it is successful. But that would bring up another question, how many trades do you need to make to evaluate a strategy. If a strategy is based on making maybe 12 trades a year or something. So it's just confusing, it depends on who you ask. I'm open minded of course so I will say YES it is possible. But that depends on how long the strategy is ran, how many trades it makes, and there are just so many variables to calculate. *yawn*, just figured I'd throw that into the mix just to get someone who is cranky on my back.
"limitdown Registered: Jun 2001 Posts: 1676 09-03-01 10:20 AM they say, everyday we spend above is 100% successful, instead of being below or flat on the day. funny how life, trading and similar terminology equivocate in meaning." somehow your remark reminds me of the saying of the gangster: "anyday that that I am above ground is a good day."