This is always fascinate to me. In 100 shots, it is easier to lose all gain in one hit rather than to recover all loss in one strike. Why is this? How are you doing this morning? Are you retiring early today, like me?
ha ha not retiring yet but caught the whole move. out already, right know looks like a retracement or rangebound next, but one never knows with the ES i'll wait before deciding my next entry.
Good job. I caught a piece of the morning's downdraft, but not the whole thing. Re: Waiting for your next entry--Waiting for ES to tip its hand is a very important skill to have. I'm learning that more day after day.
with a sound strategy in 100 shots. Yes, most people lose because they simply do not have a sound strategy or they do not follow it. Discipline is a very hard thing to master. If your strategy is even marginally sound you will lose because of commissions rather than anything else. There are many sound strategies out there, but even if you have one will you succeed? Perhaps, but certainly not if you cannot follow it the way it should be. Today, I scored 17 pts with one trade using one of my systems. It was mainly due to the trading discipline than anything else. My point is basically this: if your shots are well though-out, it is hard to lose, your PL will fluctuate but you will not necessarily be losing in the long run.
Like in poker, when a player gives away whether he has a good hand or a garbage hand by subtle (sometimes not so subtle) mannerisms and/or gestures, nervousness, how he holds the cards, how long he hesitates when its his turn to bet, etc. The literal translation of the term would be a poker player who actually tips forward his cards so that others can see what he's got, rather than keeping his cards face down on the table (with a chip on top to indicate he hasn't folded) or "close to his vest." The analogy to trading is that there is no reason to try to trade during a choppy consolidation period when the market isn't telling you anything (you'll get whipsawed a bunch). Better to let the market tell you what its up to by letting it "tip its hand". Like today. We had a big selloff right at the open. Then, we went into a lengthy congestion period. Finally, ES showed that it was going lower by breaking down definitively below the support level at 868.5. What the market was saying was, "Ok, I'm going lower now. Short me if you can read my body language!" A smart trader waits for the market to drop these kinds of clues.
Ticker Date Points Monthly Pts Total Pts ES02H 1/7/02 -1 -1 -1 ES02H 1/9/02 -6 -7 -7 ES02H 1/11/02 6.25 -0.75 -0.75 ES02H 1/15/02 -6 -6.75 -6.75 ES02H 1/16/02 14.75 8 8 ES02H 1/18/02 -3.5 4.5 4.5 ES02H 1/22/02 -6 -1.5 -1.5 ES02H 1/23/02 -1.25 -2.75 -2.75 ES02H 1/25/02 -6 -8.75 -8.75 ES02H 1/28/02 -6 -14.75 -14.75 ES02H 1/29/02 32.25 17.5 17.5 ES02H 2/7/02 -6 -6 11.5 ES02H 2/8/02 12 6 23.5 ES02H 2/13/02 9.25 15.25 32.75 ES02H 2/21/02 4.75 20 37.5 ES02H 2/27/02 -6 14 31.5 ES02H 2/28/02 1.75 15.75 33.25 ES02H 3/1/02 21 21 54.25 ES02H 3/6/02 10.5 31.5 64.75 ES02M 3/8/02 4 35.5 68.75 ES02M 3/11/02 -6 29.5 62.75 ES02M 3/25/02 -6 23.5 56.75 ES02M 4/1/02 -0.75 -0.75 56 ES02M 4/5/02 -6 -6.75 50 ES02M 4/9/02 5.75 -1 55.75 ES02M 4/10/02 -6 -7 49.75 ES02M 4/11/02 16 9 65.75 ES02M 4/15/02 -6 3 59.75 ES02M 4/18/02 -6 -3 53.75 ES02M 4/19/02 -1.25 -4.25 52.5 ES02M 4/24/02 -6 -10.25 46.5 ES02M 4/26/02 20.75 10.5 67.25 ES02M 4/30/02 4.75 15.25 72 ES02M 5/1/02 -6 -6 66 ES02M 5/13/02 1 -5 67 ES02M 5/16/02 1.25 -3.75 68.25 ES02M 5/20/02 6 2.25 74.25 ES02M 5/23/02 -6 -3.75 68.25 ES02M 5/24/02 2.75 -1 71 ES02M 5/31/02 -4.25 -5.25 66.75 ES02M 6/3/02 -6 -6 60.75 ES02M 6/5/02 -6 -12 54.75 ES02M 6/6/02 12.5 0.5 67.25 ES02M 6/9/02 2.75 3.25 70 ES02M 6/11/02 14.25 17.5 84.25 ES02U 6/13/02 -6 11.5 78.25 ES02U 6/19/02 15 26.5 93.25 ES02U 6/25/02 17.5 44 110.75 ES02U 6/27/02 -6 38 104.75 ES02U 7/1/02 -6 -6 98.75 ES02U 7/12/02 -6 -12 92.75 ES02U 7/16/02 13.75 1.75 106.5 ES02U 7/17/02 -6 -4.25 100.5 ES02U 7/18/02 27.25 23 127.75 ES02U 7/26/02 -6 17 121.75 ES02U 7/31/02 -6 11 115.75 ES02U 8/1/02 21.75 21.75 137.5 ES02U 8/12/02 3.25 25 140.75 ES02U 8/13/02 -6 19 134.75 ES02U 8/16/02 -6 13 128.75 ES02U 8/19/02 19 32 147.75 ES02U 8/21/02 -6 26 141.75 ES02U 8/23/02 11.25 37.25 153 ES02U 8/27/02 -6 31.25 147 ES02U 8/30/02 -6 25.25 141 ES02U 9/5/02 -6 -6 135 ES02U 9/6/02 4.5 -1.5 139.5 ES02U 9/9/02 -6 -7.5 133.5 ES02Z 9/16/02 -3.75 -11.25 129.75 ES02Z 9/17/02 19 7.75 148.75 ES02Z 9/25/02 7.5 15.25 156.25 ES02Z 9/27/02 16.25 31.5 172.5 ES02Z 10/1/02 29 29 201.5 ES02Z 10/17/02 -5.25 23.75 196.25 ES02Z 10/21/02 -6 17.75 190.25 ES02Z 10/22/02 -6 11.75 184.25 ES02Z 10/24/02 11.5 23.25 195.75 ES02Z 10/25/02 0 23.25 195.75 ES02Z 10/30/02 -6 17.25 189.75 ES02Z 10/31/02 -6 11.25 183.75 ES02Z 11/1/02 9.25 9.25 193 ES02Z 11/6/02 -6 3.25 187 ES02Z 11/7/02 11.25 14.5 198.25 ES02Z 11/12/02 -6 8.5 192.25 ES02Z 11/13/02 -6 2.5 186.25 ES02Z 11/18/02 2.5 5 188.75 ES02Z 11/20/02 18.5 23.5 207.25 ES02Z 11/25/02 -6 17.5 201.25 ES02Z 11/26/02 16.25 33.75 217.5 ES02Z 11/27/02 8.25 42 225.75 ES02Z 12/2/02 -6 -6 219.75 ES02Z 12/9/02 19 13 238.75 ES03H 12/12/02 -6 7 232.75 ES03H 12/16/02 8 15 240.75 ES03H 12/20/02 5.5 20.5 246.25 I just cut and pasted it from my spreadsheet. It is exactly 95 shots (so very close to your 100 shots) using my mechanical system that scored big today again. These are all trades that you would take in 2002. I do not mean to brag, this is just meant as a good illustration of my point and an answer to your question. It is almost 25 grand using two ES contracts.
One reason why people lose is that they give up long before they even reach 100 shots. This is particularly true for those who trade mechanical systems.
There were 3 more trades in December that are not taken into account in the data I presented for my system. All were losers, each 6 pts which is the biggest loss allowed by the system. So in total, there were 98 trades in 2002. Sorry about that. The data was from some demonstration spreadsheet that I meant for those interested in obtaining this system from me and not from my trading spreadsheet. That demo spreadsheet was not complete.