I believe there is truth in what you say to the extent that traders misguidedly deviate from their game as a result of the targets or objectives they may have set. While I think that objectives can be modified on the fly, I'm not sure that strategy should be. I think that changing strategy requires going back to the drawing board. I have not personally employed specific objectives in my trading along the lines of percentage return and so on. However, I keep thinking that I should because it is human nature to be goal-oriented. And I think that goals should have some specificity in order to be meaningful. On the other hand, misapplied goal setting can have disastrous consequences in a trading environment as you have pointed out. I have not arrived at any conclusions for myself regarding this idea. It is still a "thought in progress."
In my opinion, the most interesting goals are the ones that demand creativity and introspection. Not just could you, but how the heck would you, if you tried. There's a big difference between a superficial target that makes one a little too greedy going into the close, and a mind-blowing "what if" that spurs a top-down rethink of one's entire approach to markets and life. The universe of possibilities is so nuanced, so varied, and so compelling, it's a damn shame to box in the view.
It depends on how long super trader lives, spending habits, starting age and how long super trader stays trading. Also, assuming this super trader has multiple successful strategies for the most opportune markets at any given time, they would have to be somewhat lucky to avoid an unexpected meltdown over a long time frame (assuming they don't start off with a very large sum and hit a bull market). Some people might change careers before they see 100M. There absolutely are people out there that can clock monster yoy returns although there are probably few prop traders and scalpers doing that at this time. It would be infinitely more possible when running OPM or being at the right place at the right time (IBank with a unique edge, head of dept., ala Solly Bros in 80's).
For 99.99% of people reading this board it's impossible, including me. So get real. But if you want the odds to be far better then forget about trading and create a company doing anything but trading/investing. Get you shares and 80%+ of the company for $0.01 and then go public (with some dilution of course) at $5+. This has been done 1000 times more than making a $100m from trading profits.
The question in this form is meaningless. It depends on how much you start out with. Starting with 200 mill, to reach 100 mill is definiatelly possible ( ) starting with 10K, not so much. But let's make it serious. If we refrase the question like this: Is that possible to achieve superior returns (let's say 300-500%) for an extended period of time (let's say 5-10 years) consistently? Yes, it is possible.Not very likely, but possible. But it also depends on your trading vehicle. With stocks I would say it is much harder, because you depend more on the market conditions. With options and futures although riskier, but it is easier. Going back to the 1% a day goal, if you trade futures you only need 5 YM points a day or half ES point a day consistently supposed you trade 1 contract for every $2000 on your account. Here is an interesting exercise, just to reach that 100 million. Let's suppose you start trading 1 YM contract with $2000 on your account and you can make 10 points a day consistently day after day. That is 2.5% per day. Also let's suppose, you conservatively increase the number of contracts by 1 after each 40 days. At the end of the first year you are trading 7 contracts and your account grew up to 42K. By the end of the 3rd year you are up to trading 21 contracts and your account is up at 422K, that is close to half million, and you started out with 2K, remember? You are right on your way to the 100 mill.! But the best thing in this scenario is that as you increased your money you actually decreased your exposure, because your leverage actuallly decreased by 10 times by the 3rd year. Now of course you could keep the same leverage and increase the number of futures for every $2000 gained. That would be exponential growth, and you would reach 100 mill in probably less than 10 years, I am lazy to do the math...
Reread my 2nd paragraph, I'm suggesting that you create a business that has NOTHING to do with trading/investing and then float that.