i have no idea what lame 4th grade style predictions have to do with trading- i imagine you 'double dog dare' a lot too. what i do know is that whenever i am 'sure' the market is going to go one way or the other beforehand, it's a recipe for disaster. having such built in bias makes one less receptive to what the market is telling you and, when the '100% guaranteed rally' doesn't materialize, you lose your ass fighting the tape. the term 'ass clown' comes to mind...
I recall Thanksgiving eve trading is strongly bias to gains. Seems that would be the intellectual basis for this statement. A purely historical (seasonal) play
Look what happened when Mymini was sooooo sure that on Oct 9th going long without stops was free money. He called a perfect top! Fortunately he isnt really trading and just posting threads every few minuites during every single trading day otherwise he'd be a broke man
ES closed around 1445 yesterday during RTH. In the European session it's down to 1434 right now. Edit: 1429