100-1 Lupo is Loco

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Avalanche, Sep 19, 2002.

  1. Man I wish I could get these odds on the downside. :)

    rally in 2003? Bet on it
    Top Vegas bookmaker puts strong odds on a rebound

    By Chris Pummer, CBS.MarketWatch.com
    Last Update: 7:23 AM ET Sept. 18, 2002

    SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- As investors anxiously await a stock market recovery, a top Las Vegas bookmaker says the odds strongly favor a rally next year.

    Joe Lupo, race and sports book manager for the Stardust, set the odds at 2-1 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2003 between 9,000 and 10,000. (DJIA: news, chart, profile)

    Lupo saw a far greater chance the Dow will soar rather than collapse. He put the odds at 4-1 that it will close the year above 11,000 -- in the area of its record high 11,909 -- and the chances of it finishing below 6,000 at 100-1.

    "Once the market focuses on the economy of the future instead of recent events such as 9/11, terrorism and corporate turmoil, it will rebound," said Lupo, who also calculates odds for all the casino properties of the Stardust's owner, Boyd Gaming (BYD: news, chart, profile). "Too much cash is waiting on the sidelines."

    Lupo, a professional odds maker for 12 years, was the only one of several leading Las Vegas bookmakers willing to handicap the market's performance at CBS.MarketWatch.com's request.

    A game handicapper

    Lupo, 39, often is called upon to set unusual odds. Along with laying odds on the Oscars as other Vegas bookmakers do, he's set odds on the MTV awards and the winner of the Survivor TV shows, on whether President Clinton would be impeached, resign or ride out Monicagate and on who will turn out to be the "Deep Throat" who dimed out President Nixon to Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein.

    He also put odds on the first character to be "whacked" last season on HBO's Mafia crime family hit "The Sopranos" and correctly called the favorite -- Jackie Aprile -- at 5-2. "He was already messing with Tony Soprano," Lupo said. Inside information also was a factor: "It helps to know who has long-term contracts with the show."

    Lupo based his market handicapping on its historic performance and bullish long-term sentiment among several investing professionals he queried. U.S. stocks are limping through the second-longest bear market in history, now at 30 months versus a nine-month average for such slumps.

    Additionally, Lupo factored in the market's gains in years following a severe downturn, which average about 30 percent. (A 30-percent increase from the Dow's close Tuesday would put it at 10,669).

    "The changing economy and changing times say you can't look at the '70s like the '90s or the '80s like 2000," Lupo said. "But probability has to come into play."

    The window's closed

    Nevada gambling laws prohibit wagering on anything but racing and sporting events, so Lupo's market odds won't open for bets. In London, "spread-betting' companies take wagers on the Dow's performance, but they pay out an amount per point bet, say $10, on where the index finishes above or below a projected, future number.

    As such, Lupo risks nothing in setting the odds as he did. Still, he said he applied statistical formulas and considers his professional reputation on the line with the Dow-handicapping exercise.

    Indeed, other major Las Vegas bookmakers refrained from undertaking the assignment to avoid alienating investors, be they bulls or bears, who might also be future patrons. Said one casino spokesman: "If we don't get the odds right, we lose."

    Lupo set odds for seven different Dow finishes for 2003:

    Above 11,000: 4-1
    10,000-11,000: 7-5
    9,000-10,000: 2-1
    8,000-9,000: 9-2
    7,000-8,000: 8-1
    6,000-7,000: 50-1
    Below 6,000: 100-1
    "The country is looking to thrive," Lupo said. "A lot of young people are aggressive in nature and are making more disposable income, and there's more women in the workforce and more money out there.

    "While the seniors will probably hold onto their money after the last few years, a lot of younger people are looking for ways to put their money back to work."

    Chris Pummer is personal finance editor for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco
  2. what a f^cking jackass. i'll take his odds any day. (especially considering the next pres election isn't for 2 yrs.)

    better yet, i'll sell him all the calls he wants.

    now the bulls are hiring bookies to shine hope on the public. they'll do whatever they can to foist their stupidity on JQ Public.

  3. This is just so out of line with the prices of leaps on spooz.

    If any casino would actually stand by those moronic odds, you could make a fortune on riskless arbs.
  4. I took the dolphins 15 to 1 to win Super Bowl....they currently have them at 10 to 1.....do I see a trend here
  6. JayS


  7. I opened an account with them a few weeks ago, and am quite entertained by trading sports, laying bets on the 2004 Democratic presidential candidate nominee, and of course betting on Saddam.

    Seems like a legit Irish business, and not a scam at all.
  8. 100:1 seems very extreme, although i don't have any statistical analysis to disprove it. I would take that bet with a small amount of money, much better than lottery tickets.
  9. TGregg


    100:1 suggests that he has not done a true statistical analysis of the markets. Can't remember who it was, but somebody did one, and odds came out like a bell curve, except it had "fat ends" (higher than bell curve odds at the extremes).

    I'd be sorely tempted to put 100 bucks on that 100:1 longshot.
  10. Guys, I wouldn't admit to making bets through this company.

    Me thinks you are admitting to a felony. (Wire Act and various others)
    #10     Feb 5, 2003