10-Year Bull Market Has Begun; Dow Will "Double For Sure"

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by S2007S, Oct 1, 2009.

  1. S2007S


    Another day another bold prediction, seems like bear markets last a few seconds and bull markets, well they last for as long as you believe in them. Aside from that this is just another one of those funny predictions. I mean this reminds me of the days when people were predicting the nasdaq to go to 10,000, of course it never happened, anyway those who believe a bull market is here and is ready to rally another decade or more, good luck.

    Aside from that, this is what caught my attention yet again:

    Mr. Hennessy says, "Plus, with trillions in cash on the sidelines waiting to get in the game, the market's headed in one direction: Up."

    Permabulls, Bulls, Idiots and FOOLS alike please stop it with the Fu$king money on the sidelines nonsense, its not true. All talk about money on the sidelines is just lame damn excuses for people to think that if trillions of dollars pour into the market its only going up. I remember all the talk about money on the sidelines in 2007, after a 50% drop in 2 years trillions of dollars on the sidelines didn't do a fu$king thing to prevent the indexes from plummeting. Enough of the conspiracy theories please................

    10-Year Bull Market Has Begun; Dow Will "Double For Sure", Hennessy Says
    Posted Oct 01, 2009 08:00am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing
    Related: dia, ^dji, spy, ^gspc, qqqq

    The Dow Jones Industrial rose 15% in the third quarter, closing the book on its best 3-month span in 11 years.

    Skeptics calls it a classic bear market rally.

    Neil Hennessy, chief investment officer of the Hennessey Funds, has a more positive assessment.

    Much more positive.

    "I think we're starting a 10-year bull market," he claims. During that time, he believes, the Dow will "double for sure" from current levels.

    His reasoning?

    Stocks are the only reasonable money-making investment in this current environment of low interest rates. Why "put your money into a 30-year U.S. government bond at 4% and wait 30 years to get your money back?" he asks.

    Instead, he says, buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The 30 components are yielding a 3% dividend and, unlike Treasuries, offer a growth opportunity.

    Plus, with trillions in cash on the sidelines waiting to get in the game, the market's headed in one direction: Up.
  2. Do you have any facts to back up your statement that there is no more money on the sidelines? Or is this your personal opinion?
  3. AK100


    It's a marketing message disguised as market comment. Nothing more.
  4. Stupid spew.

    Dow "double in 10 years" = 7.2% average return. BFD!

    Inflation will be higher than that.

    Adjusted for inflation, taxes and currency losses, you'll lose money in real terms.
  5. This guy never took a look at Japan I take it. Stocks went nowhere while short term rates were flirting with 0% and long bonds hit 1%.
  6. Of course he's going to say this if he's an equity fund manager. It gets the little guys back in the game. Either way, there's not a lot to support the market going higher or for that matter, lower. Eventually, it will return to the mean.
  7. S2007S


    AUGUST 30TH 2007

    Just to clue everyone in on what this guy said in the middle of 2007, he said the DOW was undervalued at 13,000. I bet if you asked him in late 2007 around dow 14k he would have still told everyone it was undervalued, for some reason these permabulls always find an excuse to tell people the markets are undervalued.

    Hennessy, `Dogs of Dow' Follower, Says Index May Rise to 15,000
    Share | Email | Print | A A A

    By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam

    Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Neil Hennessy, known for his ``Dogs of the Dow'' mutual fund, said the index of the largest U.S. companies may rise as much as 15 percent through the end of the year.

    ``I don't see anything to hold back this market except excuses,'' the 51-year-old manager said in an interview yesterday in Boston. ``Earnings are increasing, there are plenty of jobs out there and the economy is still in great shape.''

    Hennessy, who oversees $1.8 billion as chief executive officer of Hennessy Funds in Novato, California, said the 30- member Dow Jones Industrial Average will rise to between 14,000 and 15,000 by Dec. 31. The Dow, which traded as low as 13,043 yesterday, had gained 6.6 percent from the beginning of January.

    Turbulent financial markets, triggered by increasing defaults in subprime loans in the U.S., have stoked concerns that economic growth will slow. The deepest slump in housing in 16 years may also hold back consumer spending, which accounts for the biggest part of the U.S. economy. The Dow has fallen 4.9 percent since rising to a record 14,000 on July 19.

    Still, the economy expanded at a 4 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the fastest in more than a year, as exports and business spending rose, the Commerce Department in Washington reported today. Gross domestic product rose 0.6 percent in the first quarter.

    ``No one is believing that we are in a bull market, but just take a look at the numbers out there,'' Hennessy said.

    Underperforming Fund

    Hennessy's $94 million Total Return Fund owns shares of 10 companies that have been the worst performers on the Dow index over 12 months and pay the highest dividends. This year, the fund has risen 4.1 percent through yesterday, half the gain of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In 2006, the fund advanced 22 percent, beating the Dow's 19 percent return.

    Hennessy said the Dow is undervalued because member companies' average price-to-sales ratio is $1.27, less than his fair-value estimate of $1.50.

    Hennessy said his favorite stock in the Dow is oil company Exxon Mobil Corp., which his fund doesn't own because it has returned 28 percent in the past year including dividends to rank in the top 10.

    ``If I were pushed to put all my money into a single stock, I would choose Exxon Mobil,'' Hennessy said.

    The company's 1.63 percent dividend yield and average quarterly net income of $10 billion over the past year make it attractive, he said.

    Hennessy's funds hold General Motors Corp., whose shares have risen 5.7 percent in the past year including dividends, and Citigroup Inc., which has fallen 2.2 percent.

    The dogs approach gained attention after investor Michael O'Higgins published the book ``Beating the Dow'' in 1991. O'Higgins wrote that investors could make money by simply buying the worst-performing stocks that pay above-average dividends.

    The strategy faltered in the late 1990s when technology- related companies soared in value. After the technology bubble burst in 2000, many investors shifted money to shares of smaller ``value'' companies that are cheap relative to earnings growth.
  8. S2007S


    3 weeks later he is back on cnbc with the same prediction about the 10 year bull run. I love how bull runs can last decades but bear markets fade away after just 10 days. Quite funny.

    On the other hand, Hennessy said markets are in a 10-year bull run. “We’re in for a really good run, particularly looking at pessimism out there by the investor,” he said.

    “If I’m going to be investing in the long term, you have to look at the low-end retailers or the low-end manufacturers of whatever they are manufacturing,” he said.

    “I don’t think people are going to go back and change spending habits to the high end any more. I think people are going to go for more for less and that will go for the next 10 years.”
  9. Jakobsberg


    Seems this could turn out to be fairly accurate and if anything too conservative on the dow.
    mymajia likes this.
  10. mymajia


    If you sticked to what you had posted on Oct 1, 2009 and bought and held, imagine how much money you would make.
    #10     Apr 28, 2015