I would believe that my trades are still of positive expectancy, but I look at profit factor instead. Of course every spread has some historical expectancy as well.
BIDU fell so IV went up. I made on my position than I could have at this price (if closed at expiration) so closed it early. I will post rest of trades later.
Trades for the next week: AAPL 2x : Buy 3x 405 Put / Sell 2x 410 Put BAC 50x: Sell 1x 12.5 Call / Sell 3x 13 Call BBRY 20x: Sell 2x 15.5 Call / Buy 2x 16 Call / Buy 1x 14 Put BIDU 9x: Buy 2x 82.5 Put / Sell 1x 85 Put C 8x: Buy 1x 45.5 Call / Buy 2x 46 Call / Sell 3x 46.5 Call / Buy 3X 45.5 Put F 10x: Sell 2x 13 Call / Buy 2x 13.5 Call / Buy 1x 13 Put / Sell 1x 14 Put GOOG 2x: Sell 1x 800 Call / Buy 2x 810 Call IBM: 5x: Buy 3x 200 Call / Sell 1x 195 Put / Buy 1x 200 Put NDX 1x: Sell 1x 2825 Call / Buy 3x 2875 Call SPY 20: Sell 1x 159 Call / Buy 2x 160 Call
Do you trade with real money? Somehow the combination of the words 'money' and 'experiment' makes me worried.
A lot depends on today. Most positions are past BE point. If market goes up - more profit, down - losses.