10% heralded as good trader??

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortorlong, Feb 15, 2008.

  1. Fangdog

    Fangdog

    Another factor, but not all. Is huge fund managers are compensated based on the the size of the fund (a certain percentage). If they make an industry acceptable return and it could happen as early as one month, why would they want to take further risks and jeopardise their management gig?

    Think of it as a football coach who consistently has an 7-5 or 8-4 season. He has a long career as a football coach because he never has a losing season. Why would he risk going for 4th down and one, when he can punt and still end-up 7-5 or 8-4.

    Most people who decide to trade, know there is more to it than just 10% returns. What they don't know, is whether they can do it or not, and most can't.
     
    #11     Feb 16, 2008
  2. As others have mentioned, it's MUCH EASIER to make 400% using $25k account than with $1,000k account.

    Much easier....

    But of course, getting 400% return is not an easy thing to do CONSISTENTLY, even with $25k account.





     
    #12     Feb 16, 2008
  3. guys: the question should be in my view, how could one achieve a safe, scalable rate of return which is 2 to 4 times the risk free rate of return?

    it the answer is yes, then one can obtain any rate of return one pleases!
     
    #13     Feb 16, 2008
  4. HotTip

    HotTip

    Plus I think there are a lot of traders out there who only maintain a certain amount of money in their brokerage account and transfer the excess to MFs or other endeavors. If you make a 400% return every year trading futures on a $25k account but you don't let the account compound, then stating that you make 400% annually is fallacious.
     
    #14     Feb 16, 2008
  5. You're right, I open every month with the same balance after drawing off profits from the previous month (if there are any!) so the returns aren't compounded, but how does that make a 400% return fallacious if the account did actually produce a 400% return? Sorry, don't get it.
     
    #15     Feb 20, 2008
  6. Please define "safe".
     
    #16     Feb 20, 2008
  7. Cutten

    Cutten

    Because it can't be compounded, and it isn't being measured as a % of what matters i.e. your net worth. IMO, returns should be measured as after-tax net profit, as a percentage of total net worth. That is the only figure that matters. Your ability to pay bills and buy things is not determined by your account size and % return, after all, but rather by actual dollars.

    I could withdraw half my account, trade the same, make the same profit, get just as richer (hopefully) as before. Has my % return doubled? No, not in any meaningful sense. All that has happened is I have transferred the risk from my trading account to my overall net worth. Since net worth is what matters, that is how the return should be judged.

    Any non-scalable return is good in terms of income, but eventually the return diminishes. Let's say you can make $200k daytrading, but it doesn't scale. After 4 years, your return is now 25%, if you keep reinvesting your profits. After 10 years you have accumulated 2 mill, and are now making 10%, the same paltry returns that this thread is decrying.

    Daytrading is a great way to go from 10k to 500k to a couple of mill, if you are good enough to do that. But beyond that, it kinda sucks.
     
    #17     Feb 20, 2008
  8. Brandonf

    Brandonf Sponsor

    Read the Market Wizard's books by Schwagger or Hedge Hunters by Katherine Burton. Either will give you a good idea of what people do. If you can consistantly do 15% + per year your pretty good, if you can do 30% + per year your a trading god. Warren Buffet has done pretty well averaging around 25/30% per year, so I think you can take your cues from those types of examples.
     
    #18     Feb 20, 2008
  9. Brandonf

    Brandonf Sponsor

    I don't really think thats the best analogy, but I don't really have the words right now to express why that is. I will say though that there are a lot of traders who will walk away after they are up X on the day, for awhile I did this as well, but really what that is is lazyness and fear. You should never limit yourself, and as a trader, when things are going your way you have to press your edge.
     
    #19     Feb 20, 2008
  10. I thought we were just talking about returns on a trading account, if you're saying trading profits should be calculated as a percentage return on net worth then you need to take into account all assets, liabilities, and investments and that figure will be irrelevant when it comes to trading performance as it's going to vary from trader to trader.

    You're assuming traders work on a fixed dollar return which is incorrect. Profits from trading aren't non-scalable, that's why the only significant number when talking about risk, reward, and return is % of trading account.
     
    #20     Feb 22, 2008