Wednesday: weekly oil inventory report. Traditionally, that means directional price action sometime between 10:30am and 2:30pm est. Traded passive ahead of and aggressive past the inventory report by preplanned design. Pullbacks, breakouts, scaled-in entries... absolutely nothing worked, because in hindsight it is a no-range, dead-wedged session. I see no reason to keep trading today, if the CL doesn't remain dead into the close, any directional movement will be outright algo explosions which I don't care to game. So it was an untradeable session, most unusual for inventory Wednesdays but that's how it went. For those who asked via email, this combine can be completed in ten days if all parameters are met OR it can last longer if max loss intraday or max drawdown does not disqualify results. So in my case I'd have to lose -2605 from here straight down or lose -2000 in a single session to break the combine. Neither of those will happen, so next Friday or beyond is the end date. If price action remains this tightly coiled thru today and tonight, it portends large-range expansion tomorrow. If it breaks 200 or so cents either way between now and tomorrow morning, ceste` So far this week, all three sessions have been illiquid and just spastic enough to prevent me from trading any real size. I've yet to place the first 5 or 10 contract position anywhere... but the times for that will soon come
have you had any problems with an inaccurate trade report? I'm doing a 20 day 50k and the report is saying I'm up 12k with a down day of 6k and an up day of 8k. I'm actually only up 800 bucks with a 975 down day and +1500 up day.
Sounds like you've found an edge I'm certainly not a quant, and I didn't stay at a holiday inn express last night, but I don't get the math. Shouldn't it be 2K and 525?
...official blotter My daily objective is to scale-in one or more 5-lot to 10-lot contract positions, pick off +40 ~ +50 cents to possibly +100 cents if price blows away with my position along for those frequent algo-surge moves. So far this week, CL has mirrored the eminis and all else: thin, spiky, sideways choppy or abrupt spurts that quickly stall. I have not been able to put on any decent size trade at all. Only a matter of time when price action is structured enough for some real trades... being patient until. I was corrected via emails earlier from followers who pointed out that to fail this combine outright, I'd have to lose -3,600 straight down and/or lose -2000 any given day. Both of those parameters are within my control, so they will not happen. Because there is a minimum performance parameter to this program, I cannot be content to just turn 1 - 2 contracts for $500 - $1000 per day and risk nil draws. We can easily do that, with no worries about minimum upside performance goals. That type of account management can come into play IF this combine results in a real-money sponsored invite. The next stage has no minimum upside mandates, only downside risk controls. So we can shift gears with trades size and loss control then, should that second stage be reached. Meanwhile, we balance the dual-edged sword of taking enough heat to make the +8500 objective happen while avoiding the -2000 daily / -3000 from 100k start. It's a balancing act, daily and ten-day viewpoints alike
lol I'm on day 12 those are just the top losing and winning days most days I make 300-500 and lose 300
scratch day overall. In yet another illiquid algo-driven dogpile move lower, could not fill at the desired high mark so filled at next sell sequence lower. Caught enough of a chunk to make +900 and looked to enter a new trade, but the next leg down in selloff to lows was so violent it had no possible chance of getting filled. Price simply blew right thru the bottom of both MT4 and NT domes I work with. After that, it was nearly four hours of straightline, dead-chop channeling from 102.50s CM RoadMap level to 102.80s all the way. As the pit-session close neared, algos were switched on again and they ramped price right back to the bottom of open range as expected. I spent the late morning and early afternoon getting chopped out of every scale-in trade attempt long or short. That happens when price is comatose flat for four hours in a 30-cent chop zone. Tried my best to make something out of something that might happen, but nothing happened. to be continued...
(continued) So from +900 to about -600 at the lows, final trade sequence was long 2 from 102.85 and long 2 more from 102.95 => 4 from 102.90 blended. I calculated breakeven for the day at near 103.10 and knew that statistical odds favored 103.40 print at/past the pit close. So what was more important to me? Breakeven status for the day and risk missing further gains? Or hold for potential further gains and risk finished slight net-loss if price got squirrely into the close and came back down thru my position? My account management choice was breakeven first, hope for surge move up into the price objective (or higher). Price went above 103.10 at BE for the day, I trailed there, it was clipped at 2:16pm eastern, end of pit session, end of any further decisions. Price then went 30+ cents higher or $1,200+ more in favor, but that's irrelevant once management decisions are made and executed.
At this moment in time, CL is not swinging or oscillating intraday. It just moves from one algo-driven surge to the next algo-driven explosion with nothing but tight-range chop in between. It does not make several moves per day that permit working several trades in methodical fashion. CL traders either catch & ride the algo-violence early and late day, or stare at endless hours of complete dead-chop in between. This won't persist forever. Maybe days, maybe weeks, maybe into the next FOMC. Nobody knows. Meanwhile, I'm trying to fill scale-in trades with a symbol that's more slippery than a greased pig in mud. Cash results, controller account today above. With no concerns about hitting daily limits or max draws or any of that stuff other than my own (wider than TST) limits, AND with no minimum profit mandates in a limited period of time, trades management is different. In my experience, sim-trading the TST qualification period is tougher than trading real money. Without question it is harder, due to the max loss and minimum profit limits defined in a period of time. Pass the sim combine stretch, and everything else related to real money is a breeze relative to that.