Discussion in 'Trading' started by smaranam, Nov 29, 2012.
Is it possible to hit 10 000 winning trades in a row?
Of course. Go for it!
10 000 trades,250 trading days in a year,
if i do 3 trades per day,it`ll be 750 per year
10 000/750 =~ 13+ years
if i do 3 trades per day - $330 each,it`s about $1000 per day
in 13 years i`ll make $10mln
do you like my grandiose plan?
Is it possible? Yes.
Is it likely?
You can estimate how likely as follows (which assumes the probability of a single winning trade is binomially distributed, and also that the probability of any trade winning is independent of the wins and losses that have gone before ... all of which could, and will, be disputed)...
For case of a single trade with a 50% probability of being a winner ...
P(10,000 wins in a row) = (0.5)^10,000 = .... ?
.... this number is nearly zero ... something like 3 x 10^-3,030
If you assume the universe is 15 billion years old (again, this is something that can be disputed), that's not quite 5 x 10^17 seconds.
So, even if 10,000 round trip trades were completed every second since the universe began, there is still an almost vanishingly small probability of having seen 10,000 winners in a row during any 1 of those trials.
Now, if you did 10^200 of these 10,000 round trip trials every second (that's a lot of volume) since the beginning of the universe, there is a better chance you might have seen at least one 10,000 long winning streak.
So it's possible, but not likely.
Thank you,good math!
How about 90% P of a single trade?And if you want the Universe` age for that calc,then it is,as follows:
One Kalpa is a half of the 24 'Brahma hours' is equal to 4,32bln years,so the Day of Brahma- two Kalpas is 8,64bln years.So the month is about 259,2 bln years.It`s supposed that Brahma has lived 50 years by now,so the math is-259,2 bln x 12 x 50.
The chances should be a bit higher now.
It's still itzy bitzy teeny weeney ...
So, 1000 trades in a row $3k each is more realistic?
Open a brokerage or bucket shop, every trade will be a winner.
Thanks!Good idea,but not every trade will be $1k,not even $100...
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