Hi, How would I play it? Stop-loss:4 pts (initially), target: 10 pts. I would move to BE after 4 pts in my favor, after 6, I would like to have at least 2 pts in the bank, after 8 pts at least 4 pts, but could settle for 4 and 6 pts after 6 and 8, respectively if I noticed that TRIN and TICK did not support my position. However, I would enter the trade based on the stochastics divergence and not on a pure TOD scheme. The TOD would only be there to get me focused on a possible reversal at that point, but I would need a stochastics divergence to confirm that.
I have compiled stat for cac40 but I didn't do it for Dow but yes there is something special around this hour, in fact in my model the theorical break zone is often (but not always) during the first time unit. I observe that often it is even 10:02. www.patterntrading.com tries to forecast time zone.
Your replys have been most appreciated. However, what I was looking for specifically is the percentage of times the market reverses somewhere in the time frame of 10:00 and 10:15 to move 4 or more S&P points regardless of reports being issued at 10:00. Prospeous trading to all in the New Year!
GD2KNO, I gave you a nice hint (suggestion) before in an earlier reply... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=12378&perpage=1&pagenumber=6 Simply, most likely your going to have to do it yourself... something that should keep you busy for no more than 3 hours worth of work (per year of data)... or you can hold your breath and wait for someone to do it for you based on their trading methodology and not yours. Simple solution to your problem, question or need Note: I have such data based on this past year only and based on my own trade methodology. I will only share it with you after you did your own numbers so that we can do a comparison. My numbers are in 4 categories 1. 0950am - 1010am est 2. 0950am - 10am est 3. 10am - 1015am est 4. 0945am - 1015am est With 10am reports and without 10am reports...two sets of data and so on based on my trade methodology. Further...I will tell you for a fact...to concentrate more on the 0950am - 1010am est time period for trade signals. My point is this...are you looking for RAW data that is not based on any actual trade signals (just moving +4 points up or down)... or are you looking for data based on trade signals? Once again...do your own statistical work based on your own trade methodology and your results will be more useful than the results from anybody else. Now...go print out all those past charts or boot up the computer charting program...get out that calculator or spreadsheet...make a bowl of popcorn and enjoy the show that is revealed to you. NihabaAshi
GD2KNO..... the range and volatility of the ES has shrunk much in the past 2 years, but back before then , if the market moved at least 10 points (including gaps) before 10 am i would be able to consistently (2 of 3 times) pull 3 points out of the countertrend move between 10-10:30. My guess is that you may be disappointed with the amount you can pull out now though. But depending on how you play you may be onto something.GOOD LUCK