10:00 AM trend change stats???

Discussion in 'Trading' started by GD2KNO, Dec 30, 2002.

  1. GD2KNO


    Anyone keep stats on the frequency of a 10:00 -10:15 AM trend change of 4 or more S&P points??

    Thanks for the info.

  2. GD2KNO


    I'm assumiing someone other than I is aware of frequent price reversals around the 10:00-10:15 time frame, I just never kept stats and wondered if anyone did.
  3. lescor


    I don't keep stats on that, but I'm guessing it has something to do with economic reports that are usually released at 10:00. The market has been surprised a lot this year.
  4. GD2KNO


    Can't believe no one tracks an event that "seems" to me to occur about 75% of the time.

    Guess I'll need to track, or back-track it and see for myself
  5. We talked about that on another thread but I cannot remeber which one, so I am pretty useless. I mentioned that in the book by Oliver Valez "The Master DayTrader", he mentions the reversal times. But I don't remember anyone who kept stats on it.

    Interesting though that you are looking for a reversal during a time that follows a popular breakout time, ie the 30 minute. Speaking of which, you might PM snosur4 and Girlpower about it. They have done extensive work in that area and keep very good records. I think jstormbo does too.

    Good luck. Btw, I love "seems" in quotes. I understand you completely and do it that way myself. It is another way of saying 'empirically'.

  6. What kind'uv stats are you looking for...

    past month, quarterly, semi-annual, past year, 2 years, 3 years or what?

    No matter what you get...someone will tell you it's not enough for the numbers to have any meaning :cool:

    Here's a hint: A few weeks ago I was reviewing my printed out 3min all session charts of the Eminis for the past 3 years to analyze the reliability of the Bullish Engulfing Japanese Candlestick when occuring in Bullish Divergence patterns between 0930am - 1030am est...

    it took me about 2.5 hours to come up with results.

    Thus, I'm sure you yourself can boot up your chart program (if you don't make it a habit of printing out charts every trading day for later review) and review at least 6 months worth of data to come up with any statistical value you want on how many times the market changes direction by more than 4 points between 10am - 1015am est...

    along with comparison to days when Key Economic Reports were released at 10am est...

    all in a few hours of review.

    P.S. You may want to take a closer look at what happens between 0950am - 1010am est on days Key Economic Reports are released at around 10am est.

    It could be an exploitable trading edge.

    Good luck and Happy New Year.

  7. Another nugget from NihabaAshi. Thank you.

  8. nitro


  9. In the thread Nitro referred to, I mentioned the reversal times I use for my trading. Today the bottom occured @11:15, very close to 11:30 that I use to pinpoint the market turning points. You could see a stochastics divergence in a 2 min ES chart at that time that would inform you about the bottom. I do not think there is any trend change related to the first 30 min breakout. I would rather think that the trend continues in the same direction as the breakout and starts well before the breakout occurs. Of course, we can have false breakouts in which case the trend does change, which happened today at about 10:06. I do not rely on any trend change at about 10 AM for trading this type of breakout, but I trade it rarely and only using the 61.8% FR within the first 30 min bar to get me in sooner, so even if the trend changes I can still get out with some profit.

    Incidentally, today we also had a 61.8% FR within the first 30 min bar except that it happened before the bar got completed (at 9:54) so I did not take that trade. But if you wanted to anticipate it to be a 61.8 FR you could have taken it with some safety measures, say using SAR to determine your stop-loss which would be very tight.

    Also, what do you mean by the trend change? The ones I mentioned in the other thread were meant to be major intraday changes, meaning intraday turning points. The trend change at 10:06 was in the same direction as the one at 11:15, but it did not occur at the turning point (the market still moved lower after 10:06).

    Also, using some elements of one of my simple systems, I was anticipating the bottom at 870 (plus minus 4 pts that were meant to be a stop-loss). I got it pretty much OK: the bottom occured at 869.
  10. Hi wally,

    Today I was scalping a little eventhough I'm basically a trend trader that trades reversals and exhaustion patterns...

    rarely do I trade continuation patterns (jumping on the band-wagon) unless they are scalps.

    Why was I scalping today instead of my normal trading habits? Too much porto still in the blood system from previous night party.

    Wally...today, I got a major Trend Reversal signal (Long signal) about 10:03am est via the 1min all session globex chart for the ES.

    Next major Trend Reversal signal (Short signal) occurred about 10:22am est also via the 1min all session globex chart.

    Later in the day via the 3min all session globex chart...I got a minor Trend Reversal signal (Long signal) at about 11:18am est.

    Note: I did not trade my trade signals today...therefore...this is purely 100% hindsight discussion :cool:

    Also...as the trading day progresses...I usually use higher chart intervals, wider stops and such if I'm still trading.

    My question is this to you...

    Why do you think most traders would have an easier time holding on to their positions without getting stopped out for small profits in the first 2 positions in comparison to the last position I mentioned above?

    What I'm getting at is this...not only should time of day be used as a trading tool...but also the speed and strength of such moves is a key factor when determining the risk reward.

    Note: I use Time & Sales to visually get a feel for the strength of a trend and I pay close attention to the time of day when such strength occurs...no calculations...just visually watching the momentum at Ask or Bid during certain intraday time periods.

    Therefore...time of day is also a trading tool when determining when most potential trends with some strength will occur.

    Thus, I rarely would have bitten on a signal like the 11:18am est because it would have had far too many wiggles to keep me in the position...all based on the time of day.

    In other words...in hindsight of course...I would have been done trading for the day had I taken the first stronger positions (less wiggles).

    Therefore...I guess another question is this...

    how would you have specifically played the 11:18am est (or any time near that) based on your trade methodology? Stops, Profit-Targets and such.

    All in hindsight review of today's chart only.

    Thanks because I'm always curious at what other traders do in similar situations.

    Take care and good night.

    #10     Dec 31, 2002