Seedy, your Jack imitation is slipping a bit. When you wrote "the premium is announced before the open", you were misremebering Jack's astonishing statement to the effect that "Fair value is announced before the open". As if either did not exist at any given time, albeit especially meaningless at the open. Far more meaningful simply to note that there is a "gap" from close to open, as if Maxwell demons were busily at work on price overnight.
Yesterday ended at 88. That is, at 4:00pm there was no more comparisons possible. At 8:20 this am the DJXX and the YMXX began to trade. The cash was still closed. On indexarb. com the premiun or fair value was available. Did 88 hold through the synch? How much drift in the fair value occurred this am going the the end of the first and secone range expansion? It was way over the bot triggers that's for sure. What were the cycling limits on the C-H vol? Anyone could see how this periodicity was in sync with the three other measures of tape reading. Read Don's thread on buy on open and see how the MM's have to deal to make $$$. He hits 5 to 10 on 50 where he stays on the side of the MM. Same instruments involved all around. Nobody but nobody was playing a 50% retrace based on market carryover. Order left on the table do not count and smart money ALWAYS plays to the contemporary (including resets and drift) of indicators. Huge piles of macro data aptly demo where longterm valuations build the equities curves. RTH shows short over the years and non RTH shows the long term drift which everyone sees as the published norms. Don's unverse and minedo not overlap for buy at open. He uses a high cap universe and I use a max money velocity/ quality universe. He trades with the MM and I front run the herd as a parasite. He picks 50 for a few hour hold and I pick 8 or ten for late pm buys (front running) to get the opening gap and a three day hold for the channel width. For ES, I use the indu and DJXX as a leading indicator of the open; its all reset and drift is taken into account to frontrun the 3 and 4 digit traders. Today five bars on ES did the deed (set level 3). The next four times the range was played it was with a greater than 5% drift of FV which had to be included in the data calibration. Most trades were peggd today about 4 to 5 bars out (that means ahead in time) in terms of time and price values (+/- two ticks). I probably should post a chart once in a while. This is increasenow's OP and he, of course, thinks the thread is great and he is having a cup of coffee apparently. What do you think it would be like if someone like looked at a chart and started to ask questions as a result of critical thinking? Its like Don says. you have to trade with the MM. The simple reason it that MM's are permanent fixtures because they know how to make money. There is no way a person can make money by not understanding what happens overnight and knowing precisely how it affects the next day. I am required to do that. I do it for equities by buying tomorrow's gap late in the prior day (google the posts on the method) and, for commodities, I have the preflight check in place before the open. Level 1 trades inside of level 2 and level 2 trades inside of level 3. FV leads level 1 with a four step sequence all of which leads the ES. Level 3 gives you the turns on level 2 gives you the turns on level 1. The geometry of P, V is always leading the present. A person has to do the work to get the facility. everything about markets is highly highly coorolated and what is important at any time it always told to you in advance. Naturall Don has guys who can nail 400K in a day doing what he does. Well, the money is there to be made. I extract it by obeying what the market tells me to do. What a person has to learn it to do drills. Drills are repetions of the same old same old using eversharp tools. Tools are extentions of man in terms of his mental powers and in terms of the limits of sensory perception. trading within a tic or two of the markets limits for each and every segment of offerings is not done by just looking at a screen. Seeing the turn 4 or 5 bars out is done by doing drills relentlessly and purposefully until it is like driving a car, or, actually, like sports in the majors. Having hundreds of bells and whistles going off because you don't like doing the work just means you have bells and whistles going off and you are just a spectator and you aren't really playing the game at all. You either trade with fear, anxiety and anger or you trade with comfort, support and confidence. Thats how posting is done too. Anyone can read posts and know the standpoint from which they are posted. As Todd says, what is coming AT him from other people doesn't matter; it is the other person's choice to be where they are. The FV is there. Drills teach you how to use it after you find out how it works. Drills teach you what is sufficient to know that you know. You mind is capable of telling you that you know that you know. In the sand line after line is crossed. Some lines are just aha's others are religious experiences in comparison. Work gives a person ownership; it is irrevokable. What most people who trade, temporarily, for a while in their lives do..... is learn failure. They learn fear, anxiety and anger. They chose to not do the work of purposeful learning. The passing quant era is one to watch quite closely. Not for the failure part but for the part that shows how macro abstractions prove that all the data piled into the Cray gives you mud (frozen mud in the final analysis). It is quite an experience to purposefully learn how to be in the market all of the time based on the simple fact that you have to be in the market to make money and the simple fact that the market price moves (the money making thing) all of the time. The market is divided into a series of segements. The mode and sentiment define these. If you find out otherwise, let the world know. Drills make this possible to do.