Discussion in 'Trading' started by BlueStreek, Jan 17, 2007.
Maybe, maybe not, Bernanke's is speaking tomorrow so any sell off could reverse on his comments as has happened on more than one occasion already. However it does seem that the Fed (and central banks world wide to their respective markets) is trying to talk this market down so maybe this time he won't save the day.
I have been buying some of the dips (buying the dips isn't as easy as some make out, you do actually need to discriminate) and for the last month have been putting 2/3 of the profits in to NQ, ES, and QQQQ puts. Net on this strategy I am about even just because I have been keeping that last 1/3, and have been fairly lucky trading some of the puts and but if i am wrong it could be that I will have worked my ass off for relatively little (this is by far my most time consuming strategy as it involves day trading the futures and swing trading options on futures) I am looking for a 5-7% sell off from current levels in the next two months.
There, I have gone and lost any meager shred of credibility I may have had by joining the chicken little short term top calling chorus.
I should also mention that I am coming off a spectacular 2006, and so far 2007 has been pretty hot too and I am starting to get that feeling that I can do no wrong and I know what that means, that I am due for a humbling reality check and maybe this will be it.
Long term I think we are close to the inception of a huge global bull market but some of the froth needs to come out of the system first. I am also looking for more short term strength in the $ and a better buy in on Gold.
The rising bear sentiment tells me that whatever correction we do have it will be short and sweet.
From Blue Streak..
11-23-06 07:17 PM
you perma-bulls know it`s just a matter of days to weeks.....come on you can only push up these stocks on no fundamental news for so long......with the prevailing sentiment that iraq is a quagmire, housing more to go til bottom, slowing growth.....democrats now in control---they will push all these anti-business initiatives....this rally was entirely manufactured....and oncesomebody blows on it....it is going to fall hard....when it falls....the buying looks pretty tired to me this past week.....if it doesn`t start this week, it will be next week......everybody knows the end is here....the question is do we crash hard off these inflated highs...or do we just quietly wind down.....and then slowly gain momentum to the downside...the dollar is crashing, wage pressures are rising......and the credit markets are way over-extended......no way this rally continues straight through til next year.....because this isn`t based on y2k money where companies were spending tons on technology....just watch the resistance to any up move the next 2 weeks
Pound the market baby....I always make much more in a down market.
If you post it often enough, you are bound to be right at least once.
1% up day tomorrow. It's nice to have a resident fade around.
A bunch of oil money went into tech at the beginning of the year, now after poor earnings, warnings, and subpar guidance from the tech sector, I look for a lot of money to move into defensive plays like consumer staples, healthcare, and high dividend yielding stocks.
But this market has been ignoring bad news for so long based upon purely over-arching massive liquidity in the system that the fed will have to mop up via raising interest rates, which he will signal to the markets tomorrow, and tomorrow the "dip buyers" will get their heads handed to them so to speak.
The tech stocks are already headed for a respectable sell-off tomorrow, but I think the dow and s&p will join in, and we will get one of those massive sell-offs in all 3 indices.
Shouldn't you have quoted CNCB?
Love the lemmings for they are loyal.
I think the oil money will return to oil.
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