1.8% Profit per Day Compounded over 220 Days

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Jan 27, 2018.

  1. expiated


    ScreenHunter_7210 Feb. 16 07.37.jpg


    You almost have the amount you wanted in your live trading account before resuming your trading activity, so it’s time to get serious.

    The above image makes clear you have the knowledge required to be successful, so it is now just a matter of applying what you know wisely.

    At your core, you are a creative person, but there is an alternate side of your personality where self-discipline is one of the defining characteristics. When trading, you will need to switch off the creative guy and lean on “the mechanic.”

    Do not trade the live account until you have demonstrated you can do this, and the way to prove you are capable of stifling the former while embracing the latter is to trade your JFD demo account back up to $100,000, which you should be able to do rather quickly.

    Here are some rules “the mechanic” needs to follow…

    • The only time you are permitted to trade is when you can devote 100% of your attention to it. This should not be an issue. You know that trading off one-minute charts makes it possible to begin compiling gains within minutes, so if you have other things to do, simply devote a few minutes to trading using one-minute charts, and then put the trading completely aside before moving on to whatever else you have on your to-do list.
    • Use one-minute charts as your primary timeframe for trading! This is your key to trading efficiently—your means of reaping profits within minutes of opening a chart, even during periods of low liquidity, and of realizing profits on a daily basis while virtually eliminating any kind of drawdown. You know that Forex charts evidence an extremely well-defined structure at this level, regardless of how many “experts” characterize this as “trading noise,” so why mess around with anything else? This is where you will find your bread and butter—where you will see the highest frequency of trading opportunities, and more than likely, where you will realize the highest percentage of successful trades. So the fact that you will probably be reaping your profits an average of only five pips at a time is of no consequence. It all adds up relatively quickly. You have come to the conclusion that this is where you will make the most money over time.
    • Enter positions in the direction of the two “Christmas tree lines” ONLY! (You know what it is to which you are referring here.)
    • Because one-minute charts have such a well-define structure, you are almost never wrong, and you like this a lot—but this strength is actually your weakness—you’re Achilles’ heel, if you will. Yes, it’s true that sometimes the market makers will generate an anomalous spike which is there for an instant and gone in a flash, so that if you adjust your stop losses, you can remain in the trades and subsequently collect your profits without suffering any harm whatsoever. However, there is no way to distinguish this type of mischief from the beginning of a wholesale reversal in the intraday trend, baiting you into a situation where you accommodate a changing tide for far too long, and as a result, suffer devastating consequences from which it takes much time and effort to recover (note the two losing trades above). So don’t do this!!!
    Trading off one-minute charts prudently means that your reward-to-risk ratio will almost always approximate 1:1, and since you will more than likely be trading at a minimum 80% success rate (and to be honest, probably somewhere above 90%) your occasional losses will be no greater than your average winning trades, and you will have plenty of those to outweigh the ones which remind you that you are only human, so leave your stops where you initially place them! Again, adopt your “mechanic” mindset, reveling in your ability to execute a prescribed plan without any deviation whatsoever and with almost robot-like precision.
    And good luck!

    (But I hope you won't need it—God willing.)
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2018
    #41     Feb 16, 2018
  2. expiated


    Add the following, which was originally written concerning the five-minute chart setup:

    "As a general rule, the only time it is permissible to enter a new position—the only time that a trade should be executed—is when all three oscillators have, at the very least, made contact with the inner ceiling or the inner floor of the Price Anomaly Channel."

    Moreover, it is probably advisable to rely on the “Low Now-High Then” Moving Average to dictate the precise moment it becomes okay to place a given order.

    Ms. Mae's (Multiple Simple Moving Average Envelope Strategy) Forex Trading System Setup:

    ScreenHunter_7211 Feb. 16 13.22.jpg
    #42     Feb 16, 2018
  3. expiated


    ScreenHunter_7213 Feb. 16 15.43.jpg
    #43     Feb 16, 2018
  4. expiated


    I find it very surprising that I could still be modifying the charts I use for trading at this point, and yet, I did so once again yesterday.

    On February 9, 2014 and May 21, 2015 I commented that despite my ongoing search for the best Forex trading strategy for me personally, I didn’t think I was a hapless newbie endlessly learning something new, getting excited, placing a few losing trades, getting disheartened, rejecting the entire concept as a result, and moving on to the next strategy; perpetuating a never-ending cycle of failure because of neglecting to ever put in the time and effort necessary for a given methodology to become successful.

    And on October 18, 2015, I again noted this fact, because at that time I believed I had settled on a single technique, and in a sense, I had. For I sight November 2015 as the initial development of the system I still use today.

    So then why aren’t the chart configurations I use set in stone by now?

    Actually, I do believe there are certain aspects of my system that are no longer subject to change, such as which simple moving averages best represent the general overall weekly and daily trends, and which category of (proprietary) technical analysis tools to use as lower panel indicators.

    However, in analyzing how in the world I could possibly—at this point—decide to change the chart setup whose image I posted here yesterday, the answer is that I changed one or more aspects of what I wanted to accomplish via my trading—that’s why.

    Previously, the success of my system was predicated on trading in alignment with the general overall day-to-day trend—but my focus is now (as of yesterday) dominated by an emphasis on short-term fluctuations. This has also meant eliminating the use of any reward-to-risk ratio that fails to meet the minimum 1:1 standard, something I was not as concerned with between November 2015 and the day before yesterday.

    These changes in what I wished to accomplish were better assisted by corresponding changes in the envelopes and moving averages I was opting to employ. I am not including any images this time however because the new setup is so simple it would not be all that difficult for others to “appropriate” the modifications without burdening themselves with any kind of compensation in return for the favor.

    Again, on October 18, 2015 I also wrote I loaded the standard templates that came with the MT4 platform and was struck by how ‘nonsensical’ and complex they looked. In contrast, my approach appeared so much simpler and so much more ‘intuitive’ that I now appreciate it to an even greater extent.”

    This is as true today as it was then, and with respect to the new setup I’m hoping to begin using next week, even more so, in that it looks MUCH less complex than the chart I uploaded yesterday.
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2018
    #44     Feb 17, 2018
  5. expiated


    ScreenHunter_7237 Feb. 19 10.32.jpg
    After more than a week following my request, the startup stock trading contest outfit is finally releasing 75% of my current winnings, which will be enough to finish bringing my OANDA Forex trading account balance back up to $100.

    ScreenHunter_7238 Feb. 19 10.39.jpg

    I timed it the last time they approved a payout, and it took eight days from when I received notice by e-mail to my actually receiving the check in my hand via snail mail. It took another three days after mailing it from the post office for Ally Bank to credit it to my checking account so I could immediately transfer it electronically by debit card.

    So I might go ahead and begin trading one position at a time, which I’m able to do with $70, rather than wait another two weeks or so before trading "for reals" again, but NOT until my modified methodology is set in stone, which hasn’t happened yet.
    #45     Feb 19, 2018
  6. expiated


    Toward that end...

    At this time I’m of the opinion that there are only three simple moving average envelopes that really matter: SMA Envelopes (Z), (Y), and (X); which equate to SMA Envelopes (ZZ), (YY), and (XX) on a one-minute chart.

    Ultimate statistical support and resistance is deemed to occur at 0.??% deviation on SMA Envelope (Z), with subordinate levels occurring at 0.?!% and 0.!!%. The corresponding moving average is considered to represent the overall day-to-day in a more “sensitive” manner than this simple moving average previously used for this purpose, SMA (XYZ).

    The intraday trend is represented by SMA (X), but this line exhibits too much lag to be that useful in executing short-term trades. Its first real value is in confirming reversals after deep infiltration into the so called “trade zones,” whose locations are conceptualized as existing at statistical support and resistance levels.

    Its second value is actually found in its corresponding bands at 0.?!% deviation, which constitutes the most practical trade zone in that this statistic support and resistance level follows the intraday trend more closely than the three levels corresponding to SMA Envelope (Z).

    Generally speaking, the short-term trend can be considered bullish when the vast majority of candlesticks are forming above SMA (N), and bearish when the vast majority of candlesticks are forming below it. This is equivalent to SMA (NN) on the one-minute chart.

    However, because these trends are often short lived, it is inadvisable to execute trades that are based on them. The value of this moving average is, once again, in the bands of its corresponding envelope.

    The exchange rate tends to oscillate between the upper and lower bands set at 0.!!% deviation, and in less typical instances, 0.!!!% deviation. Hence, one possible (aggressive) scalping strategy is to enter positions whenever the candlesticks cross over SMA (NN) on a one-minute chart after having made contact with an outer band of SMA (XX) at 0.!!!% deviation. It is probably advisable (i.e., highly recommended) that this is only done when the direction of the trade matches the trajectory of SMA (ZZ) on the one-minute chart.

    (It goes without saying that the XX-period simple moving average is much too sensitive to price fluctuations to offer any indication whatsoever of where the exchange rate might be headed in the long run.)

    But no doubt, there would be a much higher probability of success associated with trades that are only executed when the lower panel’s daily trend oscillator has, at the very least, made contact with the floor or ceiling at the 3.12 level of the Price Anomaly Channel—a clear indication that the exchange rate has fallen within the parameters of at least one of the trade zones.

    Toward establishing rules that are set in stone, let me start by giving these two (or three) a try…

    RULE 1: Always use a one-minute chart for entering positions.

    RULE 2: Never enter a position unless the candlesticks on the one-minute chart have, at the very least, crossed over SMA (XX) in the direction of the trade. (There is no real equivalence for the XX-period simple moving average on a 15-minute chart).

    POSSIBLE RULE 3:To virtually guarantee a near 100% success rate, consider establishing as a hard and fast rule that you will only execute trades when the lower panel’s daily trend oscillator has, at the very least, made contact with the floor or ceiling at the 3.12 level of the Price Anomaly Channel, and is followed by a reversal in the short-term trend as suggested by a hook in SMA (N) on a 15-minute chart, or SMA (NN) on a one-minute chart.
    #46     Feb 20, 2018
  7. expiated


    I got caught in a bad situation that was unavoidable because everything I did was correct (other than not trading as conservatively as demanded by RULE 3). See it following this rule keeps the same thing from happening in the future.

    POSSIBLE RULE 4: Only enter positions when on the “WRONG” side of the new (orange red) "pullback line" during periods when the intraday (double/twin), intermediate (lime), and day-to-day (white) moving averages are all pointed in the same direction. (On a one-minute chart [where you should be going to enter positions] this is either going to equate to the opposite inner-band of the short-term envelope or to a hook in the short-term (double/twin) moving average. When you ought to be using the one and when you should be using the other is yet to be determined.)
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
    #47     Feb 21, 2018
  8. expiated


    I am seriously considering replacing my tried-and-true lower panel Price Anomaly Channel with the lower panel indicator pictured here, which very much seems likely to help me confirm, verify, or validate wholesale reversals in the day-to-day trend.


    Its use is simple and straight forward…enter a long position as soon as the lime-colored oscillator crosses above the red horizontal line and enter short positions as soon as the oscillator crosses below it.

    If this indicator turns out to be the real deal, it has the potential to highlight trades accompanied by very, very sweet reward-to-risk ratios indeed…so here’s to hoping this thing is legitimate!
    #48     Feb 21, 2018
  9. expiated


    The intrady trend--NOT the day-to-day trend.
    The indicator is the real deal!

    ScreenHunter_7254 Feb. 22 09.48.jpg End of the year!
    #49     Feb 22, 2018
  10. How many purple grapes have you made so far, expiated,...by compounding 1.8% every business trading day, o_O
    #50     Feb 22, 2018