Wednesday, February 10, 2021 With the debate having been settled as to whether the most efficient approach to trading would be to swing trade, day traded, scalp, position trade, or trade based on market structure; I wanted to get a visual picture of what 1.8% compounded daily for 220 days would actually look like. With this graphical depiction in hand, establishing a few milestones seemed to follow naturally. So then, starting with the beginning of this week, the plan is to increase today’s account balance to one thousand dollars by August 6, 2021; two thousand dollars by September 30th; three thousand by October 29th; four thousand by November 26th; and five thousand by December 10, 2021. I’m not being very precise here (for example, holidays on which one or more markets are closed are not being taken into consideration) for two reasons: First, I originally planned to grow my account organically, increasing its size through the use of internal funds only. However, as a practical matter, I now have external sources of finance that could hypothetically be added to my initial balance...and in fact, this is what I intend to do, God willing. So then theoretically, the rate at which I can increase the typical size of my trades from 0.01 lots to 1 whole Lot per transaction should accelerate accordingly. Second, there are likely to be some (if not many) days on which I record gains in excess of 1.8%, as occurred on December 21, 2020, when I enjoyed a return in excess of 20% in a single day... In other words, I don't really expect it to take me the entire 220 days to possess a $5000 trading account—hence the lack of motivation to be exact.
Wednesday / February 24, 2021 I have manage to get up to an average of $3 per trade. Of course, this is not at all impressive. But still, it is much better than the 25¢ average that was originally the norm, and if I can continue to multiply it over time, it should eventually amount to a sum that is "nothing to laugh at."
DAY 17: I decided to check in today to see if I'm on track to reach my 220-day goal or if I'm falling behind and need to find a way to pick up the pace. My success rate today was only 67%, significantly below the 85%+ I expect of myself. My gross profit was $21.85, but I lost $13.57 for a net profit of only $8.28, less than HALF of what I would have enjoyed had I been able to avoid my four losses. Nonetheless, that's still better than the $2.39 that was today's goal, as well as what would have been my goal had I been shooting for 2% or 3%. I wish I could say that I see where I can make adjustments to do better in the future, but unfortunately, I don't.
Exp, are you on the Nadex Live Train? How's the ride compared to Nadex Demo? Thanks for this nice work.
I don't really understand your question. I still have my Nadex demo account but I barely ever use it. I'm more interested in the live account at the moment because I'm hardly ever trading based on new theories anymore. Nadex was attractive because, hypothetically, a return of anywhere from $9 to $85 per trade was possible as opposed to 25¢ to $2 with OANDA. However, now that the average return via OANDA has gone up to like $2 to $7 per trade, with $20 or more per day being well within reach, Nadex has lost much of its luster. Moreover, Nadex is unattractive due to its horrible risk-to-reward structure. Binary dot com is sweet because I can trade as little as a dollar, or as much as $50, making it a very forgiving platform and easy for me to recoup losses if positions temporarily turn against me. In fact, it's virtually impossible for me NOT to make money trading through that outfit. But unfortunately, I'm not permitted to do so while living in the USA. On the other hand, because Nadex ONLY offers uniform $100 contracts, if starting with a minimum balance, a trader must essentially be flawless in his or her decision making. Consequently, I will not trade my Nadex live account routinely until and unless I devise a way to trade my system with virtual perfection—which I have yet to do. For example, my success rate during the previous 24-hour market cycle was only 67%. And in the situation illustrated below, I entered a CADJPY long position based on its four- and eight-hour trend lines, only to see the pair turn against me and head south for four hours... Upon further analysis, it appears that the sixteen hour tend line might serve as a more reliable indication as to when currency pairs have built up a full head of steam following reversals. But again, I will have to test this hypothesis trading my Nadex live account (at the end of this month) or my demo account if I don't wish to wait until then. (But I'll probably be content to wait.) If ever I'm successful at tackling this problem, I can begin doubling a $100 Nadex balance to $200, $400 and beyond very quickly. Should that day ever arrive, it will be great cause for celebration. But until then, I'm trading my Nadex live account very, very sparingly.
It just occurred to me that with my system now adaptable to everything from scalping to position trading, the solution to the necessity of being right every single time might simply be to move up to weekly contracts entered based on the sixteen-hour trend mentioned above. I just shorted EURGBP (in my demo account) as my first test case.
Day 18: My plan was to "graduate" from trading 0.01 to 0.02 lots last month. But, I ended up not doing this on a consistent basis due to my not being quite satisfied with the constancy of my performance. However, if I can maintain an $8 to $30 return on a daily basis for the rest of this month, I'll seriously reconsider the 0.02 lot standard trade size again at the end of March. Then hopefully I can continue to enjoy a $16 to $60 daily return, and perhaps even double this again to $32 - $120 in May.
Day 20: Today's... P/L: $11.77 Success Rate: 72% Average winning trade: $1.86 Average losing trade: -$1.72
If these rates had advanced like a hundred pips or more, I might wait another 13 hours for full payout at expiry. But, given that this is not the case, I'm going to go ahead and pocket the guaranteed gains available right now.
EURJPY dropped down as low as 128.85 this morning, but so far, this would still have been above the 128.75 strike price. Nevertheless, ten pips is too close for comfort for me, confirming my decision last night to exit my positions early, at more favorable levels.