Sunday / April 19, 2020 / 6:30 PM PST Regarding my previous post, I'm hoping that this will be the high for the current 24-hour market cycle and that EURJPY will head into decline for the remaining balance of the upcoming sessions. However, an actual bullish sentiment/bias will not be confirmed by the key moving averages until the rate falls below the zone between 117.03 to 117.08.
from your OP Jan 2018, several hundred posts & 40 pages to date, I was wondering (no I haven't read every post), do you have an annual last 2 year performance & have you achieved 1.8%/day compounded starting with just $100/£100 or whatever amount it was that you started with? Appreciate any response, thanks
I decided that yesterday's post (#391) would be my last "planned" entry for this thread, so unless you have any additional questions, or for some reason I find a purpose to add to what I've already typed, I'm kind of thinking I'm about to pretty much "retire" from the ET trading threads and focus more on the spiritual ones. Do you have an annual last two-year performance? The quick and easy answer is: "No." Have you achieved 1.8% per day compounded starting with just $100? In my opinion—and it is only an opinion—1.8% has turned out to be way too low. A minimum of at least 5% is the goal I now have for myself. I have easily achieved a 5% (plus) daily return, but this does necessarily happen on days that I make modifications to my chart setup. For example, April 7th (Post #383) was the last time I attached an image of the complete setup (almost two weeks ago), the reason being that my charts have remained essentially the same since then, so I've not been inclined to continue presenting them in full. Nonetheless, all day yesterday I made subtle changes to improve on what I've already got, and as a result, I lost about -$1.27 after making some 31 trades. But, this process and the changes that came out it definitely made my charts better, to the point that I now have a second reason for not wishing to post images, this being a desire to keep what I've just come up with totally private. After having gained clarity this morning (it is now 9:30 AM in Los Angeles) on how to best use my new parameters/settings (via my last six or seven trades) losing days will once again become unacceptable to me. I began trading my live account again only last week (on April 14th) after the two-year + delay with a balance of just $76. I have more money to deposit, but am holding off on doing so until I am 100% satisfied with how my final charts look, and have proven to myself that I have mastered applying the new parameters/settings by once again generating a daily return of 5% or better with absolutely no days in which I experience a loss. Once I have met these criteria, I will fully fund the account and am confident that 5% per day compounded daily will become a reality for me, God willing.
Wednesday / April 23, 202 / 7:30 AM PST If I am able to validate the second theory to my satisfaction, I plan to fully fund my OANDA account sometime next week. And should the success rate remain unchanged, I intend to increase my trade size from 0.01 to 0.02 the week following, and then continue from there.
Friday / April 24, 202 / 7:30 AM PST In fact, I ended up invalidating the second theory. My hourly chart setup appears to be set in stone since I have not modified it in any way whatsoever for about two months now, but the lower-time-frame setups that I wrote I would not change because of how pleased I was with them in the previous post were based on subsequently revealed misconceptions that demanded modifications after all. Though I feel I definitely have reason to believe I'm still on the right track... ...I nonetheless continue to find it necessary to make changes in order to accommodate the "hands on" approach I plan to be taking as a full-time retail trader. Part of this has to do with focusing on the wider and narrower waves, cycles and channels written about in other threads, and ignoring all of the ones in between. (P.S. The previous entry was posted on Thursday—not Wednesday.)
The confirmation line from the hourly charts transfers well to the lower time frame charts, but I have determined that the equivalence of the 60-minute chart's instantaneous moving average in the lower time frames became too lagging, resulting in losing trades, and had to therefore be replaced by a more accurate and precise measure.
Tuesday, April 28, 2020 I thought this might take a day to accomplish. But as it turns out, it took just a little over a week!
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 Given that yesterday marked the point at which I became 100% satisfied with how my 60-, 15-, 5- and 1-minute charts look, I subsequently began the process of writing up the protocol for using them correctly. This process is also now completed, and these directions are likely to serve as the framework for instructions I might use when and if I ever establish a “stable” of retail traders taught to use the system to improve their own financial situations while helping to generate almost unprecedented returns for the innovative new prop firm giving them this opportunity, should it ever come to pass. The methodology took a total of 12 out of 18 trades to finalize, so that the last six trades where all successful. Only 72% of all the trades were profitable, but this percentage should go way up now that it is clear what to do and what not to do, varying between 85% to 100% each day. The 50-pip trade recorded above is not likely to ever be repeated again, since the approach is designed to ebb and flow with the waves and cycles of price action so that five- to ten-pip trades will almost certainly be the norm, with approximately thirty pips all but guaranteed to be the absolute maximum. (I was asleep while the $3.31 trade zigzagged its way to its final destination.)
Based on Thursday's initial activity, it appears that on average I will need to make approximately ten to fifteen 0.01-lot-sized trades per 24-hour market cycle to achieve my goal of a 5% daily return on my initial account balance, provided I am able to avoid any losses.
Friday / May 01, 2020 / 9:30 AM PST The last week or two has been a stretch of intense chart analysis. Now that I supposedly “finalized” the arrangement of their components, figuring out why my five- and one-minute setups still seemed to be just a tiny bit “off” required additional painstaking study. So no, it turned out that I was not 100% satisfied with how my final charts looked, as I thought I was on Tuesday. Yes, their arrangements were profitable, but I’m unwilling to accept “good enough” as actually good enough. The subtle modifications made during the past 24 hours (stemming in part from insights gained thanks to the recent reintroduction of 15-minute charts) is enabling me to interpret what is going on down to the minutest of details now. This has eliminated the boredom of moment-by-moment “hands on” position management/monitoring, because I can pick up a few pennies just about every couple of minutes, or usually five to ten minutes at the most. Another benefit is that about the maximum loss that can be suffered executing 0.01-lot-sized trades now is around a buck... So at this point, I simply need to work out how to get the size of my average loss to be smaller by a few pennies, and also get the size of my average winning trade to be somewhat larger by a few pennies, which I think is possible given the confidence I am developing in the way I have been using the system since the trade I executed at 12:46, according to the above records—a methodology I believe also has the potential to virtually eliminate loosing trades, as has been the case since that time. If this latter conviction turns out to be true, I just might take the system to NADEX, where my choices on sub-one-hour contracts will be rather limited, and where the in-the-money risk-to-reward ratios will be absolutely horrendous—but also where, if a successful outcome with every trade truly is almost guaranteed, I can make $6 to $15 with each order I place rather than a maximum of about $1 trading 0.01-sized-lots via OANDA, meaning that a $100-a-day return from the very first day of trading will not be out of the realm of possibility.