No... I have to finish the last fifth of a big project I'm working on for an old client before I can return to trading my live account, which I postponed at Christmas when I spent all my discretionary funds on gifts. Sigma's question was great however in that it led me to zeroing in on the essence of my one-minute setup and delete two unnecessary moving averages that were actually a distraction. This is almost certainly my final one-minute configuration in that it speaks to me in crystal clear terms. But I must wait until I can give it my full attention before implementing it live due to the only way for me to exit positions properly is to monitor price action full-time.
Tuesday / April 7, 2020 / 12:00 Noon PST I'm now completely satisfied with my one-minute charts as well as my five- and sixty-minute configurations (I have elected to omit one envelope from the image below in that I still wish to keep it private). If they can earn me eight bucks using them sporadically and without even trading them the "right" way, I'm hoping to average at least sixteen bucks a day in the beginning and get up to a hundred as soon as possible (which is enough to support my very modest life style) and then progress from there. Either way, this will be much better than the $1.80 per day with which I had originally planned to start off. Hopefully my Average profit trade will surpass by Average loss trade once I can begin trading the system "properly" and thereby let my profits run.
Zechariah 4:10 Even a small beginning is still a beginning... (P.S. This was just a test, so I was using take-profit targets rather than letting my profitable positions run. In other words, I haven't really begun full-time trading yet.)
Wednesday / April 15, 2020 I used the first day of my returning to live trading to test my interpretation of the charts. If I can maintain a similar success rate, next week I will move back to trading 0.02 sized lots per position, which should double the day's return to approximately ten bucks. As I transition from take-profit targets to letting winning positions run, the daily take should multiply by a factor of perhaps two to four, after which I plan to increase position size going forward as warranted by the corresponding growth of the trading account balance.
Though this system has the potential to be highly profitable, it is also extremely labor intensive. One idea for making it less so is to check the markets only periodically, as the candlesticks on the higher time frame charts are closing (right after the complete candlesticks have just finished painting). Then go to the lower time frame charts, but only of those assets that displayed a “mis-colored” candlestick at the higher level, and monitor them for the appropriate structure, entry levels and take-profit targets. You can then enter positions as appropriate and walk away until it is time to come back for the next scheduled close. A second idea (based on anecdotal observations) is to only enter positions (using relatively tight stops and monster reward-to-risk ratios) when the two key moving averages pictured below suggest possible major-league reversals. This second idea will have to be tested though since, at this point, there is no hard data verifying it will work.
Friday, April 17, 2020 I believe that as of today I have just about exhausted as much information as I can get out of my lower time frame configurations. So, with nothing else to think about, it occurred to me that I might be able to improve on the consistency of my daily success rate (i.e., a greater percentage of days with absolutely no losing positions) if I also begin evaluating longer time frame charts in terms of what I’m going to call “quality” meaning how much of what I will refer to as “conflict” I observe in their setups. For example, I would consider the top chart below as being rather “conflicted” in that the three longer-term trend lines are presently going this way and that. On the other hand, the three trend lines in the bottom chart are all on the same trajectory, which makes me wonder whether if I focused on applying my micromanagement methodology to shorting this asset each time such an opportunity presented itself, if perhaps this would not almost guaranty successful outcomes. This would be very easy to combine with the above idea (see previous post) about only entering positions when the two key moving averages mentioned there suggest major-league reversals.