Monday, August 12, 2019 / 7:00 a.m. PST There was too much lag in my bias line, so I had to replace it. The image below compares the old with the new.
Monday, August 12, 2019 / 4:30 p.m. PST Interestingly enough, I find myself pleased with today’s rather mediocre results for about seven different reasons... First, I spent most of the last 24-hour market cycle relying on a new indicator I plotted on my charts (what I call a "bias line") that I only later determined was calibrated using faulty parameters. I should do better now that this error was discovered and corrected. Second, this meant that rather than using the perfected system I thought I was using, in reality, I was still using a system that remained in development. Consequently, I am happy to have simply finished the day without incurring an overall loss!!! Third, this system is meant to be traded full time. So, the fact that it is still profitable even though it is not being implemented as designed (i.e., is being used improperly) is something I find encouraging. Fourth, my average loss-trade is often double my average profit-trade, but this should change once I am using the system as designed due to my exiting trades as soon as I see the short-term trend turn against me rather than waiting to be kicked out of positions by the stop loss. Fifth, opening two dozen positions over the last 24 hours is probably over-trading. Once out of development and once implemented properly, four or five well placed trades during each market cycle will probably be plenty, and is also likely to result in my daily win rate once again climbing above 80% (though I honestly believe 90% + is more probable). Sixth, because I am not trading full-time, I am missing most ideal entry levels and must also set take-profit targets rather than let my wins run—two factors that will enable me to increase my profit margin and daily success rate if and when I do return to monitoring/managing my open positions. And finally, 1.8% profit per day compounded over 220 days means I must start out realizing a $1.80 daily return. So even today’s lackluster results are more than double what I have set as my initial goal.
In fact, there are a number of these trades that I would not even execute in the first place, because I would be waiting to see the right ordinal configuration of the moving averages rather than entering the positions based solely on market structure.
Tuesday, August 13, 2019 / 12:30 a.m. PST Again, if the developmental phase of Numerical Price Prediction is now essentially over, I ought to be able to settle into perhaps five to ten select trades per 24-hour market cycle over the London and/or New York sessions—getting in when the market structure and moving average configurations gel with one another, and walking away as soon as all the corresponding moves come to fruition. My initial aim will be to make $1.80 daily, with an ultimate goal of taking the trading account to approximately $5000 over the following 220 days. However, if it turns out that I am able to manage an average return of say, $5 a day or better at the start, the potential for growing the account faster than I planned becomes much greater (depending on how close I can come to that more ambitious 5% a day return). # Days....................1%..................1.5%.................1.8%................2%...................3%..................5% I am indeed hoping the final configuration I thought I had in June really is being settled here in August. Comparing what I have now after all the very subtle and nuanced adjustments I’ve considered over the last few days to what I was using a couple of weeks ago, I think I have reason to believe this is the case, since I do not see that much difference… What I was using then and what I'm using now: The main thing I still need to work on is getting my average loss trade down to where it is less than my average profit trade. This should happen if and when I begin trading full-time. But even so, this shortcoming I’ve yet to shake consistently is not going to be that big of a deal if I continue to maintain a daily success rate between 85% to 90% +. And based on my observations since November 2015, I see no reason why this should not happen, God willing. P.S. So why haven't I been trading this strategy in a live account ever since November 2015? Well, back then I was "scalping" (i.e., happy collecting 4 to 7 pips at a time) and I was not shooting for up to 30 pips per trade the way I am now. But mainly, I could not shake the conviction between 2015 and 2019 that I could make the strategy even better. That conviction is now gone!!! I feel like I have taken this system about as far as I can, so it is time to end my "research" and begin my application.
Tuesday, August 13, 2019 / 12:00 Noon PST For quite a while I’ve had a “sense” of wanting to tag the center of this simple moving average envelope with the “right” label, something similar to Stephen Whiteside’s “flypaper channel,” but I could never put my finger on the right phrase, even though it was always as if it was right there “on the tip of my tongue.” I was thinking perhaps something to do with magnetism, or rubber bands, but it just now hit me that the expression I was looking for all along was “gravitational trend line.” This will be a key feature of my forecast models moving forward. The other critical elements in addition to the gravitation line (whose slope constitutes the “tide,” with the bands of its associated envelope representing opposing shorelines) are: the actionable trend lines (representing the general flow of the intraday current); the “tube” (defining the opposing banks of the intraday river, not included in the above image); the trigger lines (the gray moving average cluster, which I have switched to brown, and which pinpoint position entries and exits); and the waves (the purple fluctuating moving average cluster, not included in the above image).
Wednesday, August 14, 2019 / 7:00 a.m. PST This morning I was trading primarily off of a lower time frame chart than what I was using the first half of this week, and after using what I saw to determine what I considered to be the most important trend line in that context… …I plotted an equivalent moving average on my higher time frame setup to see if it matched what I deemed to be the most important trend lines there—the crimson moving averages. It did not... Instead, it aligned itself with the blue moving averages, which I found interesting, and will take into consideration as I continue to evaluate how to best interpret the “stories” this semifinal configuration will be trying to tell me going forward In analyzing what I was seeing on an even higher time frame chart, I identified what I found to be an extremely useful envelope, and therefore transferred an equivalent envelope (the brown one) to the above configuration as well.
Thursday, August 15, 2019 / 12:00 Noon PST My charts have become a bit messy, so I did just a little bit of trading this morning (since I am extremely busy finishing up the project I have been working on over the past year or so) in order to try out a newer cleaner version designed to ONLY give me what I require for executing the full-time intraday trading protocol I’m planning to begin implementing next month, God willing. The same time interval comparing yesterday's and today's configurations... Since I had to enter positions after I woke up this morning rather than at their ideal levels, not to mention having to set take-profit targets rather than run with each situation as it unfolded, the returns we not all that significant... But that wasn’t the point. My goal was to test the “readability” of the newly modified setup—a mission which was accomplished.
Thursday, August 15, 2019 / 10:45 p.m. PST I took a two minute break from my work to pop in and see what was going on in the markets from the point of view of the cleaner version of my "final" setup. I saw three potential scalp-like opportunities being offered by AUDUSD, AUDJPY, and CADJPY and entered positions to again test the “readability” of the newly modified configuration—again with positive results—even though the markets were essentially dead at the time (an hour or so before the start of the London session)... Even compiling pennies, if done all day long, can lead to a significant return at the end of a 24-hour market cycle. And if compounded exponentially over a couple of hundred days, can accelerate the growth of the initial trading account by multiples of what might be possible otherwise, were the pennies disregarded.
Friday, August 16, 2019 / 9:00 a.m. PST I'm not at all impressed with this trading for pennies as opposed to trading for dollars, but so be it. This activity will conclude my trading for the week.
The brown envelope transferred from a higher time-frame chart is now orange. This morning I also transferred the most useful moving average (the blue lines) from a different time-frame down to the cleaner setup from Thursday to see if it would prove to be an enhancement or not. It lagged behind my “anchor lines” (the green moving averages) and essentially duplicated the trajectory of the orange envelope. The line was just a tad bit smoother however, so it might be useful in discerning the overall short-term direction of price, since the green anchor lines are too sensitive to price fluctuations to fill that role. I will have to see next week if the blue lines turn out to be helpful in deciding which trades to take and in which direction, or if they simply get in the way and need to be deleted.