Sunday, August 4, 2019 / 6:30 p.m. PST It's about to get serious up in here. If everything goes as planned, I should resume full-time trading sometime in September at the latest, so I want to start recording what I make or lose on a daily basis now to get a realistic idea of the potential returns I should expect when the time comes. However, to keep my public and private lives separate, the only monetary values I will mention will be from the above demo account. It will not mirror my live account perfectly, but it should still roughly reflect real-life returns. I will be using a version of NPP that is a byproduct of a Tushar S. Chande-Stanley Kroll inspired technical indicator. The ultimate goal (though of course impossible) will be to never execute a losing trade. My first three trades using the new system were to sell AUDJPY on Friday and to buy GBPUSD and EURUSD today. I just read an entry posted by Ironman777 that quotes George Soros as saying, “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” However, I think this is only partly true. If you are right nine times out of ten, unless you trade like a imbecilic moron, I think you are much more likely to be profitable than if you are wrong nine times out of ten, all things being equal.
Monday, August 5, 2019 / 12:45 a.m. PST Alas, I have already failed in my quest to avoid any losing trades. But this was, of course, inevitable.
Monday, August 5, 2019 / 10:10 a.m. PST One of the keys to trading NPP successfully is monitoring trades and managing positions—something I am unable to do at the moment. Consequently, of the demo trades I entered before retiring for the night, selling USDJPY was the only one that ended well for me. My NZDJPY, NZDUSD, GBPJPY, and EURJPY short positions all handed me handsome losses! Fortunately, the only trade I executed in my live account was buying USDCAD, which hit my take-profit target before turning south. The losses in my demo account were for -$5.88, -$4.12, -$3.96, and -$6.29 respectively. The single gain was for only $4.92. So, it looks like I will be keeping some very bizarre hours once this all gets real, out of a very clear and absolute necessity. I used this humbling lesson/opportunity to whittle my chart setups down to the most crucial messengers… Singling out NZDUSD as an example, as long as I am eye-balling linear regression as above (see red line) I ultimately wish to short the pair. But where the blue moving average adopted a northbound trajectory and crossed above the black moving average (see the arrow) well…this is where I needed to be awake to exit the position, or if trading aggressively, where I needed to be awake to switch from selling the pair to going long. If my red line stays the same, I will eventually want to short the pair once again when the situation with the blue and black moving averages reverses.
My first step to recouping my losses was to sell GBPJPY a second time, which led to a $6.21 gain to offset my earlier -$3.96 loss...
Monday, August 5, 2019 / 2:00 p.m. PST NOTE: When the market enters a period of "dead calm," not unlike what it is experiencing presently, it becomes paramount (crucial) to not simply execute trades when the current reverses its flow, but to make sure you tie entries and exits to the crests and troughs of the waves as they hit short-term price ranges as defined by the shorelines, so that outcomes are along the lines of the $1.51 and $2.80 returns offered by EURJPY and EURAUD, as opposed to the 62¢ and 56¢ payouts returned by AUDJPY and NZDUSD...
Monday, August 5, 2019 / 10:00 p.m. PST I just got beat up big time by the Aussie pairs, the Cable pairs, CADJPY, and NZDJPY. Only NZDUSD reversed south, as I believed likely to occur. I therefore went to the charts whose image I pasted in Post #213 to see what was going on, and was pleased to discover that the blue and black trend lines never confirmed entering short positions (with the exception of NZDUSD). This supports my earlier conclusion that where the blue moving average crosses the black moving average is where I need to make my moves. However, right now I'm busy, so I'm still unable to wait around for this to happen. I'm therefore shorting the above pairs again based on structure, and if they never turn south...so be it! They will just have to stop me out yet again. I'm just glad to know that I have something that WILL work beautifully (apparently) once I DO have the time to implement it exactly as it was designed to be used.
Tuesday, August 6, 2019 / 1:45 a.m. PST NOTE: If AUDUSD can't get back below 0.6784 and stay there, be looking for a full-fledged reversal of the descent it began back on July 19-23, 2019. (And this pair might not be the only one.)
Tuesday, August 6, 2019 / 8:00 a.m. PST The Cable pairs are the first to offer me anything significant from a possible wholesale reversal north. Actually, I expected this at the start of this week from GBPUSD and got burned when it took a big dip instead. Since I can’t trade full-time yet, if the pairs actually follow through, I plan to remain long until the overall trend turns south once again. Nevertheless, milking the most out of the market and maximizing success rates can only be accomplished fully (in my view) by trading full-time.
Tuesday, August 6, 2019 / 8:45 a.m. PST There is to be no follow through at this time. Instead, several of the pairs are back down to levels where I was expecting them to return to 14 hours ago, and they got there within a matter of just an hour (and perhaps a few minutes). This underscores what I just posted above…that milking the most out of the market and maximizing success rates can only be accomplished fully by trading full-time.
Sunday, August 11, 2019 / 5:40 p.m. PST I stopped recording what I was making/losing on a daily basis on Tuesday due to a need to find some way of diagnosing when I am, or am not, likely to see pairs follow through on big moves. My answer to this might have been found on Saturday, when I added what I am calling a bias line to my charts... I am using the slope of this (crimson) moving average in conjunction with its positional relationship with my (dashed) day-to-day trend lines to judge how much "trust" to put in the possibility of potential big moves paying off. My first trade this week relying in part on this new aspect of forecasting was to sell EURJPY. UPDATE: NZDUSD also worked its way to my take-profit target while I was typing this post. These are the only two trades I will be making at least for the next five or so hours.