Having adapted NPP to Pseudo-swing trading, guerrilla scalping, Nadex 5-minute options, Nadex 20-minute options, and back to live trading via a “traditional” Forex broker; I should have by now made all the adjustments that might be necessary, so the last 24 hours (or more like 10 hours) have basically amounted to an attempt to hone my ability to rightly interpret the information conveyed by what I hope is now a relatively set configuration of indicators well enough to milk a profit out of just about any market, even one that is barely moving. I figure if I can do this during a span in which liquidity is relatively lacking, then rightly discerning the direction of the intraday trend when moves are less subtle and momentum is more obvious ought to become a virtual “walk in the park” in a manner of speaking.
Today I began practicing the implementation of my “keep buying as long as price keeps rising and keep selling as long as price keeps falling” ideology of Forex intraday trading. If I were executing it perfectly and could give my full attention to it instead of monitoring my positions periodically, I would experience no losses greater than those in the green circles. Hopefully I will attain this level of proficiency relatively quickly, but today I was guilty of a big slip-up followed not too much later by a major blunder (see the red ellipses) which really did a lot of damage and seriously limited today's return. Today's Trading Results My main problem was that I was paying too much attention to my longer-term trend lines, so I have now deleted them from my routine setup... Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) primary trend lines:
Now that I have a concrete picture of what “keep buying as long as price keeps rising and keep selling as long as price keeps falling” looks like in actual practice given my particular set of indicators, my goal for tomorrow will be to get my daily success rate back up above 90%, or at least somewhere in the neighborhood of 85%. (And of course, I also need to do a better job of limiting my losses, as I've already mentioned.) Final results for the day...
Four years ago, I had no use for 4-hour charts. Forecasting where price might be in the next 24 hours rather than the next 24 minutes was, quite frankly, a rather unproductive use of my time. But thankfully, this is probably no longer the case. Even better, yesterday I devised a 4-hour chart setup that, when used in combination with my one-minute charts, I anticipate will enable me to start regularly enjoying profits per trade that easily surpass $1.00 instead of having to be satisfied with the mere 60¢ that was my plan back on April 26th. If this is true, I would not be surprised to soon see a daily profit of more like 5% in place of the 1.8% I was originally shooting for, which would in turn accelerate the growth of my tiny opening balance much faster than I had initially hoped without seriously flouting any standard risk/money management rules. % Profit per day compounded over 24 days
I am planning to discontinue regularly posting to the trading treads here on Elite Trader. When I registered on August 12, 2017, my plan was to use this forum to help maintain my motivation as I sought to "perfect" my system while keeping me honest. Since then, it appears I have managed to fit Numerical Price Prediction to scalping, binary options, and now to swing trading; with the latter making it highly likely that I might be able to manage as much as a 5% to 10% profit per day without exposing myself to undue risk or mismanagement. Hence, this forum has served its original purpose as I envisioned it. I have planned my work, so now I should simply go off and work my plan.
It looks like I had about another month of planning to do, but I won't really be able to work my plan until late September. USDJPY was being a jerk and popped down to stop me out, so I immediately reentered a long position because everything said the pair ought to be climbing, and as expected, it immediately (more-or-less) returned my loss along with a little bit more. With EURAUD I knew I was going against the trend, but I was expecting the pullback to be a tiny bit stronger, and because I am not monitoring/managing my positions, I did not pull out as soon as it became clear the pullback would fall short. I did enter a short position a little later on though, and as a matter of fact, did so yet again a second time. I have no idea why I bought USDCAD. Presently, I see no reason for doing so, and for the life of me, I cannot recall why I did! In any case, there is nothing that happened the counters my system as it now stands, and had I been monitoring these positions closely and not made any silly mistakes (i.e., buying USDCAD), it’s possible I could have avoided any losses altogether. So as of today, Sunday, June 23, 2019, I am pronouncing (mainly to myself) that Numerical Price Prediction is, for all intents and purposes, fully developed. Hence, I can dispense with all experimentation and simply practice at getting better with its implementation until I can go fully operational in September. P.S. By the way, anything below an 80% daily success rate I will deem totally unacceptable. (90%+ is more along the lines of what I will be expecting.)
It will be much, much, much easier for me to trade profitably once I resume doing so full-time, hopefully at the end of September. However, I am completely finished enhancing the system I originated three-and-a-half years ago, so I might as well begin tracking my daily gains and losses, since there is nothing else for me to do, even though my trades will initially be extremely sporadic. Thursday, July 11, 2019
Friday, July 12, 2019 I sold USDCAD before retiring for the night, but the pair reversed directions on me, handing me a -92¢ loss. I could have made up the loss by going the other direction, but the overall sentiment was still bearish, so I chose not to do so, which I judge to have been the right decision, regardless of the climb afterward. What I did do was buy AUDUSD, but the pair is now looking rather dead, so I fear it might take a very long time to reach my take-profit target, if ever. This being Friday, it probably would not be a good idea for me to make any additional trades. UPDATE: AUDUSD hit my take-profit target, suddenly moving between 7:55 a.m. and 8:00 a.m. PST. I was hoping something like this might happen, and was not surprised when it did, given how exchanges rates are prone to moving in fits and starts. It's just the nature of price (rate) behavior. At any rate, that's it for me. I only got back half my loss from earlier (54¢ to be exact). Nonetheless, I'm finished trading for the week.