Yeah Baby! Praise Yahweh, it looks like I might have found my sweet spot. Trades executed based on my recently refined forecast model are unfolding just as one would expect, so that the factors I believe to be at play here would seem to be valid. If this is indeed true, then I should be able to replicate the same kind of results over and over again.
The pairs I recently sold switched from bearish to bullish, which took some of my profits. But because I was convinced by the daily charts that the assets were on the threshold of an extended journey south, I did not heed my five-minute charts and looked for a downward reversal rather than joining the new jaunt to the north. Not being able to continuously monitor my trades at this time, when I was stopped out again, I was not around to correct course and hop on the northbound train, which would have recouped my losses. I was therefore hoping to do so on the next pullback, but when the rates finally reversed, they did it so radically that they began bending the core trend lines the other way, indicating that they were once again re-embracing their formerly bearish sentiments. This means I am still out of position to climb out of the hole I just dug for myself, but the good news is that all this continues to validate my new forecast model. It is simply incumbent upon me at this point to learn to trust it implicitly. The other positive is that since my typical moves are now 10-20 pips as opposed to 3-7, once I begin employing this new methodology proficiently, my initial daily gains should be much better than 1.8%.
The above modification (see previous post) will mean making fewer trades each day and will preclude the kind of extraordinarily massive gains I initially enjoyed on the first day of this “study” (see below) as well as the better than average but less dramatic daily returns I managed two or three times after that. But because it also greatly reduces the likelihood of entering losing positions, and given that just one successful trade per day will still exceed a 1.8% daily gain, I think this is the way to go. Though chances are any ascent it leads to will be gradual at best, at least it will be an ascent nonetheless and not the treading of water or going under that I have been experiencing during the last two and a half weeks.
I was planning to short EURGBP coming off dynamic resistance. But unfortunately, it took a big dive while I was typing that last post and I missed out on a golden opportunity!
But should I desire extreme precision, these four memory-eating proprietary indicators (see below) do a significantly better job of pinpointing reversals with as much accuracy as possible. Based on an apparent bounce off dynamic support, I am currently long EURUSD and EURJPY. If the earlier EURUSD trade executed based on this same methodology turns out to be anywhere near typical, it could very well be that a better than gradual daily ascent might be possible after all.
The purpose of this journal was to facilitate the development of a winning system. In suspecting that this has been accomplished, I’m feeling the desire to maintain it on a daily basis quickly dissipating, so here are just a few (last?) random thoughts… About a week ago I recorded a video when I noticed that the cable pairs were structured to reverse their daily trends from bullish to bearish… They finally did so today, but all at once. In fact, GBPUSD is back in the same territory where it was four to eight days ago. Recall... I could not capitalize on the situation however because yesterday I switched back from demo accounts to my live account, and with such a small balance, I was maxed out in other positions. For one thing, I was long USDCAD. Fortunately, my take-profit target was hit just before the market makers took out stops or I would have been shorted out of the position. My experience over the past couple of months leads me to conclude that an absolute minimum of 30 pips leeway is required to avoid falling victim to the market makers when they go stop hunting. I was also short EURJPY but could only glean part of its potential gains due to the necessity of retiring for the night (and not wanting to risk that pair turning against me while I slept). I have (almost) total confidence in my chart step-ups as they are now (one’s confidence should really be focused elsewhere) and have deleted all other templates, but there is no point in posting them since this will no longer be of value to me, having just completed their refinement, nor to anyone else lest I define their parameters, which I’m not inclined to do. I suppose I will post my accumulative results in February, and then again on September 3rd of next year, just to keep my word and follow through—but really, who cares? At some point, I hope to set up shop at some facility where I’m helping others benefit from Numerical Price Prediction, but aside from that, my actions have no bearing on anyone else, so I might as well keep them to myself. (What I do doesn’t really matter outside my small domain.)
I took a major hit from AUDUSD when it shot north last night for no apparent reason. I could have easily reversed direction had I been day trading instead of swing trading, and then ridden the pair all the way back down. But since I was not, I missed the opportunity to hop on, and then feared that if I tried to slide down the subsequent fall, it might reverse on me while I wasn’t looking, and lead to an even greater loss. I exited USDCAD (for a small loss) to go long USDJPY because the Loonie wasn’t going anywhere, which fortunately paid off (but just a little). When the Aussie pairs finished dropping, I purchased AUDJPY hoping to recoup some loss when it climbed north again, but that’s not what it chose to do, so now I am merely attempting to get out of the position at break even, which should happen any second now. If and when I DO go back to day trading (closely managed intraday trading) in February or March, I’m thinking things should go rather smoothly. I am very much liking my charts as is, and can now conclude (in the final analysis) that in fact, I was NOT a hapless newbie endlessly learning something new, getting excited, placing a few losing trades, getting disheartened, rejecting the entire concept as a result, and moving on to the next strategy; perpetuating a never-ending cycle of failure because of neglecting to ever put in the time and effort necessary for a given methodology to become successful—but was indeed zeroing in on a personal set of parameters that, once discovered, would help me “be all I could be” as a trader.