1/4% Tax on all stock trades pushed in NY Times today

This is how I see it. It will be tough to pass in the near future for the reasons IMHO.

You have a president from Chicago ( ie CME, CBOE etc...) who is opposed to it. The SEc of Treas is opposed to it and even if Geithner is replaced, the new SOT will be someone like Jamie Dimon who is also opposed to the tax. Sen. Schumer of NY is opposed and he is very powerful on the Finance committee. Now I know the House is very liberal and can probably get a watered down DeFazio bill passed, but Pelosi said she needs world agreement over the tax. IMHO I don't see a lot of enrhusiasm from her. The Senate generally moderates anything the House does, look at Health Care reform as an example.

By June 2010 you have a UK general election in which most everyone expects a Tory victory. The Tories are opposed to the tax. You have Nov 2010 midterm elections here in the states. IMHO the congress probably won't do much prior to the election since they will be looking to get reelected and Wall Street will be paying them to look the other way. After the election I would expect the GOP to pick up at least 15-30 seats in the House. Add the Blue Dog Dems to the additional GOP members in the House starting 2011, you probably will get less enthusiasm in the House for the TT IMHO.

The IMF is due to report on the TT in April 2010. There is no guarantee that the IMF will issue a postive report regarding the TT from what I have read so far, please correct me if I am wrong.

Add all those factors together, I don't see it being passed here in the US.

I'd be interested in any critique of my post

 

The thing I have been trying to find out about Dimon is his position on the tax. If we recall in testiomony before congress specifically before Barney Frank, Frank was asking a group of Banking CEO'S about a tax on transactions. I am not sure if Dimon was the one who kind of agreed with it. Mr. Green might be able to help, he had spoke about that testimony in one of his blogs a while back. It was from about 8 months or so ago. I still would like to know a clear position from Obamas Economic advisors, namely LARRY SUMMERS on his current position on the tax, he has been unusually silent. We know he wrote a paper on the tax but that was 20 years ago and things change. Also on Obamas team of advisors is Paul Volcker who said he believes congress should study the idea of a transaction tax implementation. So we have to see there. Those are some of the things running through my mind, especially when I heard Jamie Dimons name, I am not sure if it was him whoo was ok with the tax during testimony. I will have to try and dig up that video.

 

I wish the future will play out exactly as you suggested.

I live in the US and don't know much about the UK political system. Is there a real chance that the Browns & Company can remain in power after the general election next year?

 

Not sure at all, but I think it was Mack.

 

You might be right , will try and find it!

 

I'm quite sure it was Mack

 

I agree with Spunkmeyer. My post and blog from yesterday was very similar. Plus, I pointed out that hopefully an economic recovery by next fall will take some wind out of this tax’s sails.

Also the President’s economic advisor Austan Goolsbee - a key person on his campaign, from the University of Chicago (his think tank), and who has the President’s ear - clearly said a few days ago that he doubts Hong Kong and Singapore would pass this financial-transaction tax. He more or less said the US couldn’t pass this tax unless every other financial-exchange of consequence passed it too.

Look at our proud history in America, even reading Norm Chomsky, the very-left-leaning guru economist and writer (who Hugo Chavez held up his book at the UN). Chomsky says that every American President winds up doing the same thing. Advancing US business interests – the lifeblood of American power – around the world without any big care or concern. American Democrat or Republican presidents will start and continue our wars, prop up dictators if need be, to reach our interests. Chomsky is very negative on all this but it is his view.

I said this all along. When President Obama sits in that oval office and listens to the real truth about our situation, he will do his job as our American President. Which includes ramping up in Afghanistan – which he said he would do all along – and finish our business (hopefully faster).

Don’t expect our President to roll over to the Euros anytime soon. The more the EU and Euro weakens over their crisis and the more they act irrationally and tank London’s the City, the better we will do with the dollar and our New York City. It’s time for Goldman Sachs and other large investment banks to move some bankers back to the big apple. They can be my next door neighbor.

 

Something to consider for his timing -- he's either going to hold an election in late March or early May -- the IMF report is due sometime in April -- his opponent has called the tax “literally hopeless” -- even if the report comes back favorable for the tax, Brown might not be around to follow through.

Also of note, there are no signs of a bill from Harkin this week as promised.

 

I keep thinking it was Mack as well. I think he said something along the lines of it might be something to look at? I also remember something being said about being careful not to hurt liquidity, etc but I can't remember who said it, lol...

-Guru

 

A few pages back one of the articles said the UK treasury wouldn't act on anything TT related until after the final report from the IMF (which is June 2010 I believe), their preliminary report is due in April.

I wonder where Harkin's bill is? Thats a good point as well.

-Guru