Yes they are. Speculation IS the business of hedge funds. If this tax passes I will be shutting my hedge fund down and I'll stop trading the US markets. Many other hedge funds will also close their doors. For some odd reason, people tend to think hedge funds are evil and they rape and raid people's retirement accounts. I can tell you from personal knowledge and experience that hedge funds typically buy into falling prices as investors panic out of their holdings or they buy into price to cover shorts. This added liquidity adds stability to the market, not the other way around. At any rate, let the US impose this tax. I will simply look for a different market to trade or find a way to get around this tax. If some investment vehicle is doing something like 20% per year this tax will render them non-profitable, depending on the length of time they hold their positions. Hello Cayman Islands! Hello Hang Seng, Hello who knows where but opportunity will be out there somewhere. Capital will simply flock to another country.
This is something called Chicago magazine. They compiled a list of potential losers under the new administration: http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/January-2009/Barack-ed/Losers/ CME GROUP Futures Exchange As a U.S. senator, Obama watched out for this local entity, but as president, heâll oversee a massive re-regulation of the financial services business, including putting more restrictions on the entrepreneurial CME. In the hunt for more corporate tax revenues, Obama could support a futures transaction tax, a CME bugaboo. Let's just hope thats pure speculation on the magazine's part... -Guru
It is coming And then the EU is following suit... The question is now, will they be smart enough to see that a sudden tax of 0.25% will be destructive for many people or will they start more gently with a lower rate? Can you imagine watching Rick Santelli or Bertha Coombs on CNBC - with an empty trading pit in the background? If they go head on with a 0.25 tax, I bet you, this is just a preview of how thing will be over the next 4-8 years.. They tried to create a"Stimulus" package, that turned into a spending package instead. Let's see how long it takes before a wealth tax is proposed.
If they want to pass this tax, then fine. I'm only 30 minutes from the Canadian border, and will just set up shop there, and trade the European markets. This shit U.S. government isn't one more penny from me in a financial transactions tax.
I have an idea that "this is nice in theory." If you are a US Citizen, you cannot just jump to Canada to avoid it. And trading European markets has the same US tax requirement. And I am sure the Canadian or European broker you pick will forward your tax info to the US if you are a citizen.
Not unless the IRS asks for it, there are only a few agreements in place, but i bet there will be many more soon. It goes the other way around as well, foreigners trading in the US have to declare their earning to their own tax authorities.
I will apply for Canadian citizenship. I know this process takes a few years, but I'll just sit back until it's official. Once a Canadian citizen, I will find another market not subject to this potential tax.
I still don't think this legislation will see it's way into law here in the US (hey I'm an optimist). All the hubbub this week was created by that one article in the NYT's. Prior to that we hadn't really heard about it since it was dropped from the original TARP draft. No congressman or senators that I know of have come out in support of this besides the original one's who sponsored the initial bill. The only one's hyping this up are some so called economists and reporters looking for their 15 minutes... I still believe that the powers that be know that this would cause way too much damage to an already extremely fragil financial system. Now if someone in the presidents cabinet were to come out and start talking this up then it's time to worry -Guru
The disturbing part was the widespread agreement that the tax is a good idea by the flood of comments supporting it in that NY Times piece, as well as the CNBC segment on the article in which the AFL-CIO had a rep on who supported it. If the AFL-CIO pushes its millions of members to yell at congress to support it, that will be a major concern.