That's funny...the timing. I just returned from the grocery and the couple in line behind me were discussing increasing their 401 contributions, with employer match, and shifting to a more aggressive fund. A guy behind me in another line starts bragging about how he's made more money in stocks than at his job this year and he's got this "powerful" software that searches for large volume stocks to "daytrade". I, of course, inquire as to the name of this powerful software. The guy sizes me up in an instant (I don't look like a trader/investor)and with a condescending air states that it's very complex software provided to him by Scot*trade. Does anyone here know the feeling of holding back a belly laugh in a public place? I think I cracked my face restraining myself. I do feel sorry for the older couple though. I don't think they'll make it. You can't warn them, they won't believe you.
Yes.. I have witnessed similar situations.. Back a few years ago when I used to be a personal trainer I overheard a guy (6'3" 275 6% bodyfat) suggesting to another guy (5'8" 145 14% bodyfat--he was very flabby for being so skinny) what to eat and what supplements he was taking. 1) taking 6 servings of cell tech/day 2) 3 Servings of GNC WEightgainer 2000/day 3) eat 7,000 calories/day including a big serving of ice cream right before bed 4) Take 100MILLIGRAMS/day of 'clambutteral' to 'cut up' (clenbuterol is the actual name and it's taken in MICROgrams.. A person could DIE if they took 100mg in one day) (I laughed for about a week about this) I saw this gentleman about 3 months ago and he indeed put on some weight.. He was now about 175 but he was bloated out of this world and had the worst case of bacne I have EVER see.. He no doubt found out what this big guy was REALLY taking. Unfortunately, I don't think he ever found any 'clambuterall' lol
it's not about the informercials as the sign of a market drop. i think it's more about people seeing the market up for so long without any faltering. fact is people want in on this bull run. at the moment i don't think "now" is the opportune time to enter. my perspective is that we are going to see a major correction, and IF/WHEN we do bounce john and jane from next door may enter/buy. that's the sad part because my sense tells me it will be a Fibonacci down, up, down, up, down (maybe down to 12,200 territory.) which the brighter of up really know as a shakedown (unlike a shake out, where the market is trending up.) the question is will this market exceed 13k after a steep drop/correction going into 2008? or will the market simply peter-out at a double top around 13,000k, and reveal a island formation sometime in Nov-Apri 2008?
Yeah, maybe retail is a little smarter this time, using 401k's and IRA's, filled with index funds, targeted mutual funds, and ETF's, rather than individual stocks like in the days of yore.
Public might actually be correct in following a bull mkt regardless how high price or p/e ratios get. After all trend following to where the money is....CORRECT? Where the public goes wrong and what gives them a bad rap in general is when they fail to recognize a top and hang in for the bitter fall. Thats where the public goes wrong...........NOT in following a bull mkt. Public and new traders as a general rule do not use STOPS. To use a STOP is an admission the trade might be wrong. How many new traders and public dreamers even give losing a THOUGHT when getting into stocks, etc? .. 1%, 5%? NOT many for sure. Might have a range trade summer after MAYBE some more runup, remember in a game of probabilities, if anyone tells you a specific forecast.........they are ego tripping. Keywords MIGHT, maybe, possibility etc. ..
true, but again if any individual investor enters the market now they are really doing so on impulse. if we have a true "bull" market, then the dow should be at 13.7K-ish come this time next month. We'll see. Me, I'm thinking something more like 12.7K-ish